One of the challenging features of this crisis is that traditional economic statistics aren’t the best at tracking the reality of what is going on in the economy at the current time, or getting ahead of understanding the risks facing businesses and employers.
Metrics such as GDP, turnover and the like, track levels of day-to-day activity. And in normal times this makes sense. But in times of crisis, or stress, they fail to capture or monitor the underlying viability of businesses, the risks that they face, or what might happen next. Instead, non-official indicators and – crucially, intelligence and insight from businesses themselves – such as on cashflow, working capital, debt stress, and employment plans, are more accurate and relevant for assessing the real-world challenge facing businesses.