GDP estimates for Scotland published this week show that the Scottish economy grew by 6.8% in July compared to June. The number of furloughed workers has fallen significantly between July and August in Scotland and the rest of the UK as the Job Retention Scheme started to be wound down. Accommodation & food services and arts, entertainment, and recreation continue to be the sectors which have been most negatively impacted.
This update provides a snapshot of new data on the Scottish economy and households based on data released in the last fortnight. Last month we had official confirmation that Scotland was in a recession in the first half of the year and earlier this month we discussed that the recovery from this recession is likely going to be K-shaped with different sectors experiencing varied recovery times.
Emma Congreve and Graeme Roy were joined by the distinguished economist Jeremy Peat to discuss the current economic situation and how things are looking over the next few months and years. We discussed the challenges that are ahead, including the virus re-emerging on a large scale, and in terms of issues around those businesses and people who will be most affected by the crisis and how government policy will need to react going forward.
Labour market data for the second quarter of 2020 indicates that the headline working age employment rate remained remarkably stable during the lockdown. But under the surface there have been significant changes in labour market activity – notably in terms of hours worked – and the pattern of these changes differs substantially across occupations. Employment in low-paid occupations has declined (offset by increased employment in high-paid occupations), whilst employees in low-paid occupations are much more likely to have been furloughed than those in higher paid occupations. This article documents these changes and discusses some implications.
This update provides a snapshot of new data on the Scottish economy and households. Consumer interest exceeded last year’s levels concurrently for most products and services for the first time since the start of the lockdown. Scotland has also seen a large number of businesses re-open in recent weeks and it now has the lowest share of temporarily closed businesses across the UK.
This update provides a snapshot of new data on the Scottish economy and households. There are indications of optimism returning for some sectors, with consumer online interest beginning to return to pre-Covid levels in some areas. However, businesses are far from out of the woods yet with many still seeing record low levels of turnover. For households, high uncertainty persists.