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What could “no-deal” mean for the Scottish Economy?

Three years ago, we launched this blog shortly after the EU referendum.

Since then, we’ve tracked the performance of the Scottish economy through a period of unprecedented uncertainty.

Back in 2016, virtually no one – apart from a small number on the fringes of the debate – was even prepared to consider the prospects the UK leaving the EU without a deal. A smooth exit, a new relationship with the EU and the prospect of new trade deals was supposedly going to be straightforward.

Jump forward to today and the prospects of a ‘no deal’ outcome remains a distinct possibility. The hard-work on agreeing any future trade deal has yet to even start.

Spending Round 2019: what does it mean for the Scottish budget?

As had been widely expected, UK Chancellor Sajid Javid used today’s Spending Round to announce significant increases in UK Government resource spending – to fund day-to-day public services – in 2020/21.

The announcements amount to an additional £12bn of resource spending next year relative to the plans that his predecessor Phillip Hammond had already pencilled in. This including a substantial uplift to schools spending (£2.6bn), extra resources for social care (£1bn), and for the police (£750m).

Of course these figures relate to spending in England. But the increases in spending in England will generate an uplift to the Scottish block grant, via the Barnett Formula.Continue reading

Is the link between labour productivity and wage growth still alive in the UK?

Frantisek Brocek is a graduate of Economics at the University of Strathclyde and is about to start studying an MSc. in Economics as part of the Scottish Graduate Programme.

UK labour productivity rose steadily at an average rate of 2.2% per year prior to 2008, but has failed to return to its pre-crisis trend since then.

Productivity matters. One reason it matters is through its links to the real wage that is affordable to employers. As productivity rises it takes fewer hours of work to produce the same amount of output. This allows employers to increase wages. Higher real wages enable workers to afford higher levels of consumption, enjoy more leisure, and potentially invest more in their health and education.

UK regional growth in a time of economic uncertainty – estimates to 2019 Q2

This blog presents research outputs from an Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence project.

ESCoE provides the Office for National Statistics with research that addresses the challenges of measuring the modern economy, as recommended by Professor Sir Charles Bean in his Independent Review of UK Economics Statistics.

This research was undertaken by Strathclyde researchers Gary Koop @gary_koop, Stuart McIntyre @stuartgmcintyre and Aubrey Poon, and Warwick Business School’s James Mitchell

The blog below was first posted here: https://www.escoe.ac.uk/uk-regional-growth-in-a-time-of-economic-uncertainty-estimates-to-2019-q2/

Has the Scottish Government received a £700m ‘bail-out’ from the UK Government?

Last week, we had the first set of income tax reconciliations for Scotland’s new fiscal framework.

For the coming year, that reconciliation figure will be around £200m.

In the aftermath of the publication of these figures, there were reports that Scotland was also in receipt of a £700m ‘bail-out’ from Westminster.