Data on Scotland’s economic growth- what’s the difference?

One of the interesting features of the Scottish economic data landscape is that both the Scottish Government and the ONS produce their own separate measures of economic growth for Scotland.

Recently we got some new National Accounts data from the Scottish Government as well as new data from the ONS for GVA growth across the devolved nations and English regions.

With two different datasets on economic growth in Scotland being released relatively close to one another, it’s possible to see whether or not they tell the same story, and if not, why not?

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Recent trends in business investment in Scotland: A Brexit effect?

Late last month, the latest business investment figures for Scotland were published – with a reported fall of 15% over the year.

Are these figures the result of Brexit uncertainty?

If the latest business surveys are believed then this is quite likely in some instances. But a look at the data from well before the EU Referendum reveals that low levels of investment have been a feature of the Scottish economy for years.

Brexit can’t be blamed for every structural challenge that we face.

Initiatives to boost the supply of finance are to be welcomed. But it’s not entirely clear that this is the greatest barrier. In many instances, it is the demand for finance that needs to be developed and supported.

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Funding the Stage 1 Budget deal

Last week, the Scottish Government reached a deal with the Greens (and 2 Lib Dems) at Stage 1 of the 2018-19 Budget Bill. Underpinning the deal was an additional £10.5 million for inter-island ferry services and £159.5 million for local government.

So where did the money come from to ‘boost’ spending and what might be the implications? For those of us who have seen a few Scottish budgets, the story sounds very familiar…… Continue reading “Funding the Stage 1 Budget deal”

February Scottish economy nowcasts!

Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre
http://www.nowcastingscotland.com 
Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde


Last month saw the release of official data on the performance of the Scottish economy in the 3rd quarter of 2017, and confirmed weak headline growth of 0.15%. This month we’ve run our nowcasting model to provide our estimates of economic growth in the Scottish economy in the final quarter of 2017 (2017 Q4) and our first estimates of growth in the current quarter (2018 Q1). We will receive official estimates of growth in 2017 Q4 in a couple of months.

Our latest nowcasts for:

  • GVA growth in 2017 Q4 is 0.31% which, at an annual rate, is 1.25%. This is down a bit from our last estimate at the start of January (which was 1.42%).
  • GVA growth in 2018 Q1 is 0.35% which, at an annual rate, is 1.40%. This is our first nowcast for this quarter.

Continue reading “February Scottish economy nowcasts!”