Outturn Scottish income tax revenues 2016/17

Buried away in a technical annex to its 2017/18 Annual Accounts, HMRC last week published Non-Savings, Non-Dividend (NSND) income tax outturn data for Scotland in 2016/17.

This is the first published outturn data for Scottish NSND income tax since the Scotland Act 2016 transferred responsibility for setting the rates and bands of NSND income tax to the Scottish Parliament. It is also the first outturn data published on the basis of HMRC’s Scottish taxpayer codes.

So what does the data say?

HMRC estimates Scottish NSND outturn revenues at £10.7bn in 2016/17.

How does this compare to the latest forecasts? Continue reading

July 17, 2018

July Nowcast update…

This blog reports the latest estimate of economic growth in Scotland from our nowcasting model. Unlike previous blog posts, this one only includes estimates for one quarter rather than two.

The reason for this is that the Scottish Government have now shortened the time between the end of the quarter and the release of data on that quarter.

Data for 2018 Q1 (January – March) were released on 27th June 2018, only 88 days after the end of the quarter.

While this is still a longer lag in the release of the data than that for the UK as a whole, it is much shorter than the previous publication lag for Scottish data of around 115 days.

Improvements in the timeliness of regional economic statistics are to be welcomed, and statisticians in the Scottish Government should be congratulated for their work in this area.

Continue reading

July 11, 2018

A summary of today’s GDP data; headline growth at 0.2% in Q1

Today saw the release of fresh data on the Scottish economy from the Scottish Government. In this blog we highlight the key trends in these data. The headlines are:

  • New data show that the Scottish economy grew by 0.2% during the first three months of 2018, the UK economy only grew by 0.1% during the same period.
  • Over the past year the Scottish economy has grown by 0.8%, compared to UK growth over the same period of 1.2%.
  • On a per-capita basis the economy grew by 0.1% in Q1 2018, meanwhile GDP per-capita fell 0.1% for the UK as a whole.
  • Activity in the construction sector once again fell (3.5%) this quarter, dragging headline growth down.

Continue reading

June 27, 2018

Economic Commentary: The medium-term fiscal outlook for the Scottish Government

The Scottish Government’s 2018/19 Budget is the 2nd of 5 budgets to be set this parliamentary term.

It contained allocations for 2018/19 only (the last time a Scottish Budget provided anything beyond single year allocations was 2014/15).

However, the government’s new Five Year Financial Strategy, published last month, provides a steer on how the pattern and distribution of Scottish resource spending (day-to-day public services) is likely to evolve over the next few years.

The Strategy contains forecasts of the Scottish budget for five years, based on forecasts for devolved tax revenues and the outlook for the block grant. It also sets out broad spending commitments.Continue reading

June 20, 2018

Today’s Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary in 10 bullet points

Today – in partnership with Deloitte – we published our latest Economic Commentary.

Alongside our analysis of the Scottish, UK and global economies, we include the following articles:

  • Could a reduction in alcohol consumption be good news for the UK economy? – Kevin Connolly, Katerina Lisenkova and Peter G. McGregor, FAI.
  • Performance of high growth firms in Scotland – Jennifer Turnbull and Kenny Richmond, Scottish Enterprise.
  • The output gap: what is it, how can it be estimated and are they fit for policy makers’ purposes? – Julia Darby and Stuart McIntyre, University of Strathclyde.

Today’s Commentary also includes an examination of the Scottish Government’s new Five Year Financial Strategy – which will be the subject of a blog later on today.

In this blog, we summarise some of the key points from our latest outlook.

01 Forecasts infographicsContinue reading