GERS

Next week’s GERS numbers – part 1

Next week sees the publication of the latest Government Expenditure and Revenue (GERS) report.

As in previous years, the publication will be followed by claim and counter claim about the strength of Scotland’s public finances and economy.

If you are lucky enough to be on holiday – or perhaps choose to hide behind the sofa until the debate passes – in the next couple of blogs, we outline what you can expect to see and hear.

This first blog covers some questions about how the stats are produced. The companion blog talks about the numbers themselves.

Continue reading “Next week’s GERS numbers – part 1” →

Labour Market, Scottish Economy

Today’s Labour Market Statistics – also a note on interpreting the data

Today saw the release of fresh data on the Scottish labour market from the ONS which (mostly!) cover data up to June 2017. Some additional data only cover the period up to March 2017.The main data can be accessed here.

In this blog, we pull out and highlight the key trends in these data.

Essentially, headline indicators of Scotland’s labour market remain good, but we need to bear in mind that, as always, the health of Scotland’s labour market is more complicated than headline numbers.

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Scottish Economy

The carbon emissions and economic impact of healthy eating in Scotland

David Comerford, Fraser of Allander Institute

As part of a project now underway at the Fraser of Allander Institute, we are considering the climate change and macroeconomic impacts of a change in demand toward a more healthy diet on the Scottish environment and economy.

In this blog we summarise some of the initial results from the analysis. Continue reading “The carbon emissions and economic impact of healthy eating in Scotland” →

Labour Market, Scottish Economy

Today’s labour market statistics: back to 2008?

The unemployment rate among the working age population in Scotland fell to 3.9% in the three months from March to May, the lowest unemployment rate since comparable records began.

In headline terms, the Scottish labour market today looks broadly similar to the same quarter in 2008, as the UK was entering recession (although in 2008 the employment rate was slightly higher and inactivity rate slightly lower than it is today).

The proportion of the employed who work part-time is almost back at pre-recession levels (the part-time employed accounted for 25% of total employment in 2008, rising to 28% during the recession, but now back to 26%).

Working age labour market statistics, Scotland
 

Employment rate

 Unemployment rate

Inactivity rate
March – May 2008

74.6

 4.0

22.3
March – May 2017

74.1

 3.9

22.9

But underneath these headline figures, substantial changes in the composition of the Scottish labour market are observed.

Continue reading “Today’s labour market statistics: back to 2008?” →

Scottish Economy

Q1 2017 GDP – analysis by sector

Last week’s quarterly growth figures of 0.8% for the first 3 months of 2017 were the best results for Scotland since 2014 – and much improved on the average quarterly growth of +0.14% during the last couple of years.

In this blog we unpick the sectoral results to see what they can tell us about the balance of growth and outlook.

We also address some recent comments about our own analysis.

Continue reading “Q1 2017 GDP – analysis by sector” →