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This isn’t a v-shaped recession….

Just three weeks ago, the OBR published forecasts of 1.1% growth in 2020.

How times have changed.

On the very same day, the Chancellor warned us to ignore these forecasts and to prepare for a ‘significant impact’ on our economy.

Since then the situation has deteriorated further. Hopes that the recession that we are now in would be ‘v-shaped’ – i.e. a sharp downturn followed by a bounce-back in the months to follow – have sadly largely disappeared.

The latest data, and emerging insights from on the ground, suggests that the effects of this crisis are going to be long-lasting.

In this blog we assess why.

Five decades of household income growth… and what might be in store for the 2020s

Data released yesterday on household incomes confirms what we’ve known for a while – the 2010s was a decade of chronic income stagnation.

Median weekly disposable household income in Scotland in 2018/19 was £514 – identical to the figure for the UK. But income growth since 2009/10 has averaged just 0.3 per cent per annum.Continue reading

Household finances in Scotland – now and in the future

New summary statistics have been released today on household income for the UK, including Scotland, covering the period up to the 2018/19 financial year. These figures belong to the pre-COVID-19 world but should not be dismissed as irrelevant. They provide a picture of the underlying health of household finances going into this current crisis.

The Coronavirus: What does it mean for people, businesses and the economy? FAI Economic Commentary Podcast

Chaired by Graeme Roy

Speakers

John Macintosh
Mairi Spowage
Emma Congreve

Supporting people through the economic impact of Coronavirus

The additional £330 billion made available by the Chancellor yesterday was a further attempt to put businesses on a surer footing. The announcement by the Prime Minister, asking people to refrain from visiting pubs, restaurants and entertainment venues has put a lot of hospitality businesses facing severe financial hardship, and it’s likely that substantial job losses will result unless steps are put in place to prevent this. This blog looks at the repercussions of this and what could be done.

Both from an economic and societal point of view, there is a clear case for acting to prevent job losses now.Continue reading