Its been a busy week of news on the Scottish budget, with three significant announcements: on income tax outturn, budget revisions, and the scrapping of the UK Autumn Budget. What are the implications?
GDP estimates for Scotland published this week show that the Scottish economy grew by 6.8% in July compared to June. The number of furloughed workers has fallen significantly between July and August in Scotland and the rest of the UK as the Job Retention Scheme started to be wound down. Accommodation & food services and arts, entertainment, and recreation continue to be the sectors which have been most negatively impacted.
This update provides a snapshot of new data on the Scottish economy and households based on data released in the last fortnight. Last month we had official confirmation that Scotland was in a recession in the first half of the year and earlier this month we discussed that the recovery from this recession is likely going to be K-shaped with different sectors experiencing varied recovery times.
Emma Congreve and Graeme Roy were joined by the distinguished economist Jeremy Peat to discuss the current economic situation and how things are looking over the next few months and years. We discussed the challenges that are ahead, including the virus re-emerging on a large scale, and in terms of issues around those businesses and people who will be most affected by the crisis and how government policy will need to react going forward.
This update provides a snapshot of new data on the Scottish economy and households based on data released in the last fortnight. It has been confirmed that Scotland was in recession in the first half of 2020, and indications for the start of the second half of the year show things improving, but still below pre-Covid baselines in many cases.