Latest Royal Bank of Scotland Scottish Business Monitor Results

Today we published our latest Scottish Business Monitor with the Royal Bank of Scotland.

The results cover the 2nd quarter of 2017 and are therefore a helpful up-to-date indicator of economic trends in Scotland. Overall, the results suggest that the Scottish economy grew in the 3-months up to the end of June, albeit at a fragile pace.

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July 3, 2017

Latest Fraser of Allander Nowcast for the Scottish economy

As highlighted in last week’s Fraser Commentary, GDP data for Scotland is published this week. This will give the first official estimate of economic growth in the 1st quarter (i.e. the first three months) of 2017.

In the report we set out the latest results from our ‘nowcast’ modelling which give a complimentary estimate of how the Scottish economy is performing.

Our latest results are discussed here.

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Trades House Lecture – Text

Our Director, Graeme Roy, delivered the annual Trades House Lecture yesterday titled: ‘Opportunities for Scotland in an unsettled world’.

Below is the text of his lecture.

The text of his remarks can be downloaded here.

For more information about the Trades House Lecture, see here: http://www.tradeshouse.org.uk/education/trades-house-annual-lecture.aspx

May 24, 2017

Referendums and economic volatility: Scotland 2014


Julia Darby & Graeme Roy

Fraser of Allander Institute and Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde


One of the interesting features of referendums is that they are often motivated by the desire to resolve big debates or settle issues of strong divergent views.

Unlike countries such as Switzerland where referendums are commonplace, in the UK they are much less frequent (although like buses, you wait ages for one to come along and then three – the Alternative Vote referendum in 2011, the Scottish independence referendum in 2014 and the EU referendum in 2016 – come along in close order!)

One consequence can be a rise in economic uncertainty.

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April 7, 2017