A discussion with Jeremy Peat on the current crisis and where we are heading next

Emma Congreve and Graeme Roy were joined by the distinguished economist Jeremy Peat to discuss the current economic situation and how things are looking over the next few months and years. We discussed the challenges that are ahead, including the virus re-emerging on a large scale, and in terms of issues around those businesses and people who will be most affected by the crisis and how government policy will need to react going forward.

Labour market change by occupation during lockdown

Labour market data for the second quarter of 2020 indicates that the headline working age employment rate remained remarkably stable during the lockdown. But under the surface there have been significant changes in labour market activity – notably in terms of hours worked – and the pattern of these changes differs substantially across occupations. Employment in low-paid occupations has declined (offset by increased employment in high-paid occupations), whilst employees in low-paid occupations are much more likely to have been furloughed than those in higher paid occupations. This article documents these changes and discusses some implications.

Not o-K.. the shape of the recovery to come

Hope of a sharp bounce back – a ‘v-shaped’ recovery – have all but disappeared. The fear is that the recovery will be long leading to a ‘U’ or ‘bathtub’ shaped recovery.
But there is increasing evidence to suggest that an alternative ‘shaped’ recovery is on the horizon – a ‘k’ shaped recovery.

Covid-19 and the hospitality sector

Mairi Spowage is joined by Rebecca Moore, VP of Operations at TravelNest, a software platform for holiday lets, and Gordon Murray, owner of Craigmaddie Muir Farm and user of TravelNest, to discuss the impact of Covid-19 on the hospitality sector.

Glasgow Clyde crane in sunset

Latest data on the Scottish economy – Update 14th August 2020

This update provides a snapshot of new data on the Scottish economy and households. Consumer interest exceeded last year’s levels concurrently for most products and services for the first time since the start of the lockdown. Scotland has also seen a large number of businesses re-open in recent weeks and it now has the lowest share of temporarily closed businesses across the UK.

Buchanan Street Glasgow looking busy

Latest data on the Scottish economy – Update 7th August 2020

This update provides a snapshot of new data on the Scottish economy and households. There are indications of optimism returning for some sectors, with consumer online interest beginning to return to pre-Covid levels in some areas. However, businesses are far from out of the woods yet with many still seeing record low levels of turnover. For households, high uncertainty persists.

Scottish Parliament Debating Chamber

Reflections on yesterday’s recovery report

Yesterday, amid many other significant stories, the Scottish Government published its response to the Advisory Group on Economic Recovery.
The urgency of the situation and the scale of the economic shock facing businesses and families across the country is on a scale never seen before.

Latest data on the Scottish economy – Update 31st July 2020

This update provides a snapshot of new data on the Scottish economy and households. There remains lots of uncertainty for businesses and workers. Whilst there have been improvements from the severe lows at the height of the lockdown, economic indicators on the whole remain subdued and many households are continuing to see financial hardship.

Glasgow Clyde crane in sunset

Latest data on the Scottish economy – Update 24th July 2020

This update provides a snapshot of new data on the Scottish economy and households in the week up to 24th July. The latest data shows consumer interest in some sectors rebounding but a sizeable proportion of Scottish businesses that remain closed and do not intend to restart trading soon.