The University of Strathclyde
The Fraser of Allander Business Monitor is one of the first major surveys of Scottish firms post-election. The figures show that the outlook for business activity, investment and employment are at their highest level since 2014. This follows a challenging end to 2019 for all these indicators. Expectations of growth …
Economists aren’t known for their sense of humour. Economics statisticians less so. So it was highly ironic – albeit perhaps not very funny – that just two days before the UK’s departure from the EU, analysts in the Scottish Government published their latest annual account of Scottish exports. As expected, …
Economic statisticians, irony and Scotland’s latest trade statistics Read More »
Introduction Thank you Andrew and can I add my welcome to everyone for coming along this evening. I must confess to only knowing of Sir Alexander Stone as the name on the building at Glasgow where my economics lectures used to be held. For those of you who don’t know, …
Against all odds, it would appear that *some* progress has been made with regard to a possible deal that would see the UK leave the EU on the 31st October. Securing an agreement in just 17 days is far from guaranteed and it seems likely that, even if some further …
Three years ago, we launched this blog shortly after the EU referendum. Since then, we’ve tracked the performance of the Scottish economy through a period of unprecedented uncertainty. Back in 2016, virtually no one – apart from a small number on the fringes of the debate – was even prepared …
What could “no-deal” mean for the Scottish Economy? Read More »
This blog presents research outputs from an Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence project. ESCoE provides the Office for National Statistics with research that addresses the challenges of measuring the modern economy, as recommended by Professor Sir Charles Bean in his Independent Review of UK Economics Statistics. This research was undertaken by Strathclyde …
UK regional growth in a time of economic uncertainty – estimates to 2019 Q2 Read More »
Earlier today new GDP data were released for Scotland. These showed growth in 2019 Q1 of 0.5%, the same as the UK over the same period. Much is always made about short-term fluctuations in GDP growth, but as we try to emphasise, much more important is the longer term growth …
Shorn of major policy announcements, the Spring Statement is an opportunity for the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to update its economic and fiscal forecasts, and for the Chancellor to announce policy reviews on everything from minimum wages to biodiversity. So how have the forecasts changed since October 2018?
With only 3 weeks to go until the UK is scheduled to leave the EU, Scottish Businesses still don’t have any certainty over the terms of the exit, and crucially, if there will be any sort of transition to future arrangements. Ahead of a series of votes in the House …
The final countdown: insights from Scottish businesses as the UK heads towards Brexit Read More »
Today the Scottish Government’s Chief Economist published analysis of the potential impact of a ‘no deal’ outcome on Scotland’s economy. One scenario presented projects that our economy could shrink by up to 7% (equivalent to around £11bn being wiped from our economy) in less than a year. We’ve been asked …
Will a ‘no deal’ Brexit wipe £11bn off Scotland’s economy in under a year? Read More »