Over the course of this week, the UK Government, the Scottish Government and the Bank of England all published new Brexit analysis.
We have been asked by a number of people to give our take on these numbers.
So in this blog, we attempt to summarise what each model is telling us and the implications for Scotland.
In short, the numbers don’t look great. Far from it.
Even under the UK Government’s favoured deal, the UK economy is expected to be smaller in the long run by around 4%.
But it is the Bank of England’s scenario of a disorderly ‘no deal’ Brexit that is the most eye-watering. Here the UK economy could shrink by 8% in a year – double the size of Scotland’s recession during the financial crisis. Unemployment could rise to 7.5%. If that was replicated in Scotland this would be equivalent to around an additional 100,000 people out of work.Continue reading