The Fraser of Allander Business Monitor is one of the first major surveys of Scottish firms post-election.
The figures show that the outlook for business activity, investment and employment are at their highest level since 2014. This follows a challenging end to 2019 for all these indicators.
Expectations of growth in the Scottish economy over the next year have also improved, with more firms believing it will be moderate, and less believing it will be weak.
Economists aren’t known for their sense of humour. Economics
statisticians less so.
So it was highly ironic – albeit perhaps not very funny –
that just two days before the UK’s departure from the EU, analysts in the
Scottish Government published their latest annual account of Scottish
exports.
As expected, much of the reaction concentrated on the
importance of the EU for Scottish trade.
But the statistics also contain interesting information
about the pattern of trade from Scotland more generally.
In this blog, we take a look at a couple of these trends, and
notably the importance of manufacturing.
Against all odds, it would appear that *some* progress has
been made with regard to a possible deal that would see the UK leave the EU on
the 31st October.
Securing an agreement in just 17 days is far from guaranteed
and it seems likely that, even if some further progress is made, a short
temporary delay – either to iron out any remaining administrative issues or to
allow for a UK General Election – seems likely.
So what might this new deal mean for the Scottish economy?
Three years ago, we launched this blog shortly after the EU referendum.
Since then, we’ve tracked the performance of the Scottish economy through a period of unprecedented uncertainty.
Back in 2016, virtually no one – apart from a small number on the fringes of the debate – was even prepared to consider the prospects the UK leaving the EU without a deal. A smooth exit, a new relationship with the EU and the prospect of new trade deals was supposedly going to be straightforward.
Jump forward to today and the prospects of a ‘no deal’ outcome remains a distinct possibility. The hard-work on agreeing any future trade deal has yet to even start.
