Today the latest Scottish Business Monitor (SBM) was published.
2019 marks the 22nd year the SBM has been run by the Fraser of Allander. The survey provides a snapshot of activity in the Scottish economy well in advance of official data. It also acts as a gauge of future activity levels by monitoring the optimism level of firms.
This morning the latest UK data for growth in Q1 2019 were released. These put UK growth at 0.5% in Q1, with growth in production, construction and service sectors.
In this blog we release our nowcasts of the Scottish economy in Q1 2019 and Q2 2019.
The UK numbers were stronger than growth in the previous quarter (which was a disappointing 0.2%), and stronger than might have been expected.
One consequence of the Brexit debate is that it has left little room for discussions of the emerging structural challenges and opportunities our economy is facing.
So what are these big policy questions?
First and foremost, the sustainable growth challenge is arguably still something that remains inadequately addressed in the political discourse in Scotland.
For all our economy’s documented successes, the backdrop is an economy that has grown slowly for the best part of a decade.
We have clear strengths in sectors and firms across the Scotland, from food & drink, financial services, energy and tourism. Our workforce is highly skilled with our university sector world class.
Next month will mark the 20th anniversary of the first elections to the devolved Scottish Parliament.
There will no doubt be some reflection on the successes and failures of the parliament since then. But whatever your view, it is hard now to imagine Scotland and Scotland’s economy without Holyrood playing a central role.
The significance of this role is only likely to increase in the years ahead. With Brexit, major structural shifts in our economy, the continuing recovery from a decade of austerity and the possibility of a 2nd independence referendum, further upheaval is inevitable.
Today we published our latest Economic Commentary.
In this blog, we summarise some of the key points from our latest outlook.
We also publish a series of articles from guest contributors.
