April nowcast update…

With Scottish GDP data out tomorrow, this blog provides a (very!) quick and brief update on our latest estimates of recent and current Scottish GDP:

  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2017Q4  is 0.32% which, at an annual rate, is 1.28%
  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2018Q1 is 0.36% which, at an annual rate, is 1.43%

We will see how close our point estimate is to the data for 2017 Q4 released at 9:30am tomorrow.

For more detailed preview of the new GDP data for 2017 Q4 which are released tomorrow morning, please take a look at our blog from earlier today.

April 3, 2018

The economic policy landscape in Scotland

2018 promises to be an important year for the Scottish economy.

As the analysis in the latest Fraser Economic Commentary highlights, whilst the Scottish economy retains long-term strengths, early indications are that 2018 will be another challenging year.

Clearly Brexit remains the greatest headwind the Scottish economy faces.
We have argued on a number of occasions that the decision to leave the EU will damage Scotland’s long-term growth prospects.

Progress has been made with regard to the transition period the UK and the EU will operate within up to December 2020. But whilst this creates space for further discussion, most of the major economic issues with respect to the UK’s relationship with the EU post-Brexit remain unanswered.

In 2018 businesses will look for much greater evidence that the UK Government has a clear vision for life outside the EU that not only satisfies business but can also secure the necessary parliamentary support.

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March 28, 2018

Today’s Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary in 10 bullet points

 

Today – in partnership with Deloitte – we published our latest Economic Commentary.

Alongside the usual analysis of the Scottish economy there are some interesting articles from:

Here we summarise some of the key conclusions from our outlook section.

FAI Scottish Economic Forecasts - March 2018

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March economy nowcasts!

Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre
http://www.nowcastingscotland.com 
Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde


With official estimates of economic growth in Scotland due out next month, we have produced updated estimates of economic growth in Scotland using our nowcasting model for Q4 2017 and Q1 2018.

These estimate that:

  • GVA growth in 2017 Q4 is 0.36% which, at an annual rate, is 1.47%
  • GVA growth in 2018 Q1 is 0.34% which, at an annual rate, is 1.38%

Relative to our estimates from last month, these suggest a slight improvement in our estimate for Q4 (up from 1.25%), and very little change in our estimate for Q1 2018 (which was 1.4%).

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March 6, 2018

February Scottish economy nowcasts!

Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre
http://www.nowcastingscotland.com 
Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde


Last month saw the release of official data on the performance of the Scottish economy in the 3rd quarter of 2017, and confirmed weak headline growth of 0.15%. This month we’ve run our nowcasting model to provide our estimates of economic growth in the Scottish economy in the final quarter of 2017 (2017 Q4) and our first estimates of growth in the current quarter (2018 Q1). We will receive official estimates of growth in 2017 Q4 in a couple of months.

Our latest nowcasts for:

  • GVA growth in 2017 Q4 is 0.31% which, at an annual rate, is 1.25%. This is down a bit from our last estimate at the start of January (which was 1.42%).
  • GVA growth in 2018 Q1 is 0.35% which, at an annual rate, is 1.40%. This is our first nowcast for this quarter.

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February 6, 2018