Latest nowcasts of the Scottish economy

Just before Christmas the latest estimates of GDP growth in Scotland, covering the 3rd quarter of 2018, were released by the Scottish Government.

These data showed that growth in Scotland in Q3 was 0.3%, half the rate of the UK over the same period.

This represented a slowing of growth in Scotland relative to the previous quarter (in which growth was 0.5%).

Our latest nowcast for the Scottish economy covers the final quarter of 2018, and these suggest that growth in 2018 Q4 was 0.36% which, at an annual rate, is 1.46%. This is broadly in line with growth in the previous quarter.

The shape of economic growth in the UK and Scotland in the first three months of 2019 will of course be shaped by preparations for Brexit, and the extent of the resolution of the current uncertainty around Brexit.

Nevertheless we will provide an initial update in early February with our model predictions for growth in Q1 2019.

January 14, 2019

The latest Fraser of Allander Scottish Business Monitor

Yesterday, the latest Scottish Business Monitor (SBM) was published. The survey is supported by Royal Bank of Scotland.

2019 marks the 22nd year the SBM has been run by the Fraser of Allander. The survey provides a snapshot of activity in the Scottish economy well in advance of official data. It also acts as a gauge of future activity levels by monitoring the optimism level of firms.

The latest results

This latest Scottish Business Monitor covers activity up to the end of Q4 2018 and provides expectations to May 2020.

The FAI Business Activity Index sits at +10%. This is above the three year average of +5% but a fall of -6 since last quarter.

This latest data shows that the Scottish economy continued to grow in the final few months of 2018.

Our headline FAI Business Activity Index slipped a little from a net balance of 16% in Q3 to 10% in Q4. Whilst this is above the long-term series average, it is lower than businesses were expecting just three months ago. Small businesses appear to be the most gloomy.

Also of concern is the fact that businesses in Scotland are reporting not just a decline in investment – as has been the case now since early 2017 – but also a modest fall back in export activity.

See the full details of the publication here.

January 11, 2019

Latest nowcasts of the Scottish economy!

Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre
http://www.nowcastingscotland.com 
Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde


With the new Fraser Economic Commentary out next Tuesday, which will provide an in-depth assessment of the performance of the Scottish economy, in this blog we provide our latest nowcasts of GDP growth in Scotland.

  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2018 Q3 is 0.35% which, at an annual rate, is 1.42%
  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2018 Q4 is 0.39 which, at an annual rate, is 1.57%

These represent slight downward revisions to our estimates for 2018 Q3 and Q4 released last month.

We will learn the first official estimate of growth in Q3 of 2018 on the 19th of December 2018. Our current nowcast (0.35%) suggests we will see a reduction in the growth rate relative to Q2’s official measure of growth (0.5%).

Since our November nowcast we have had new data on a number of key indicators.

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December 6, 2018

Nowcasts of the Scottish Economy

Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre
http://www.nowcastingscotland.com 
Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde


Labour Market data released later this morning will provide an update on how the Scottish labour market performed over the three months to the end of September.

In general the labour market has provided good news in recent years, with near record low unemployment and near record high employment. In contrast, economic growth has been weaker.

Recently it appears that growth may be beginning to pick up.

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November 13, 2018