The final countdown: insights from Scottish businesses as the UK heads towards Brexit

With only 3 weeks to go until the UK is scheduled to leave the EU, Scottish Businesses still don’t have any certainty over the terms of the exit, and crucially, if there will be any sort of transition to future arrangements. Ahead of a series of votes in the House …

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Will a ‘no deal’ Brexit wipe £11bn off Scotland’s economy in under a year?

Today the Scottish Government’s Chief Economist published analysis of the potential impact of a ‘no deal’ outcome on Scotland’s economy. One scenario presented projects that our economy could shrink by up to 7% (equivalent to around £11bn being wiped from our economy) in less than a year. We’ve been asked …

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Brexit uncertainty and the Scottish economy: Is winter coming?

Last week the Governor of the Bank of England warned that Brexit has created a “high level of uncertainty” and “companies are holding back on making big decisions”. Earlier this month, the Bank cut its growth forecast to just 1.2% for 2019. If this turns out to be correct, this …

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Scottish Exports: Growth in 2017 but target missed

Today the Scottish Government published Export Statistics Scotland, the key source of information on Scottish exports. In light of the ongoing Brexit uncertainty and the potential risks to Scottish trade patterns, today’s publication offers some interesting insights into the different markets that Scotland sells to, the sectors that are doing …

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The gains from economic integration: The EU has still a long way to go

David Comerford, Chancellor’s Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde Sevi Rodriguez Mora, Professor of Economics, University of Edinburgh; CEPR Research Fellow First published on VoxEU.org at: https://voxeu.org/article/gains-economic-integration-eu Summary Populists in Europe are contesting the perceived benefits of economic integration between countries. This column uses data …

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Scotland and the latest Brexit modelling scenarios – a negative outcome all round

Over the course of this week, the UK Government, the Scottish Government and the Bank of England all published new Brexit analysis. We have been asked by a number of people to give our take on these numbers. So in this blog, we attempt to summarise what each model is …

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What might happen to Scotland’s economy in the event of ‘no deal’?

The prospects for ‘no deal’ to be agreed between the UK and the EU have increased in recent weeks. A lot has been written about the potential long-term economic implications from Brexit. All else remaining equal, the larger the economic barriers between Scotland and its main international trading partner, the …

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Today’s Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary in 10 bullet points

Today we published our latest Economic Commentary. Alongside our analysis of the Scottish, UK and global economies, we include the following articles: Reappraising Scotland’s exports and their geographies: Brexit and beyond, Ronald V. Kalafsky (University of Tennessee) and Ross Brown (University of Strathclyde) Monetary and fiscal policy in a newly independent …

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