Brexit — a view from north of the border

Professor Ian Wooton, Head of Economics, University of Strathclyde. Ian is one of Europe’s leading trade economists. This post will appear on VOXEU – CEPR’s Policy Portal.

Citizens of the UK voted to leave the EU, but voters in Scotland and Northern Ireland expressed a strong wish to remain. Taking a trade perspective, I argue that resolving border issues will be central to finding a Brexit outcome that preserves the UK in its present form. Continued membership of the EEA — with Scotland either a part of the same country or a fellow, independent member — would be the best outcome for the UK

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July 27, 2016

What First Minister Nicola Sturgeon should say on Monday

Jeremy Peat OBE, Visiting Professor, First appeared on IPPI BLog.

The First Minister is making what sounds like a major ‘keynote’ speech on Monday 25 July at IPPR in Edinburgh on the topic ‘Scotland and Europe’. This should provide her with a great opportunity to look beyond the present state of chaos across the UK to the options Scotland faces, the difficult decisions to be made and the key priorities for action whatever option may in due course be selected.

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Yesterday’s Economic Statistics…..Revisions, Revisions, Revisions

Grant Allan, Stuart McIntyre, Graeme Roy, Fraser of Allander Institute, Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde

Yesterday’s economic figures for Scotland give us a better picture of the health of the Scottish economy and its likely resilience to coping with the heightened uncertainty post-EU referendum.

The focus of comment thus far has understandably been on the zero growth over the first 3 months of the year. Flat growth is obviously disappointing, and coupled with our expectation for what the data is likely to report for Q2, this suggests that the economy was largely on pause through the first half of the year.

What is less likely to be picked up by commentators and others are the revisions to past estimates of growth. Yet it is here that some interesting issues emerge.

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July 21, 2016

Uncertainty, volatility and structural challenges – welcome to a post-Brexit World!

Julia Darby, Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde

Tomorrow we will obtain an indication of the strength of the Scottish economy with GDP data for Q1 2016 published alongside jobs data for the period up to May. They are likely to show that the Scottish economy remains fragile, driven largely by the on-going challenges in the North Sea.

In the period immediately prior to the EU referendum however, there had been some tentative signs of an improved outlook within parts of the economy. Businesses had reported more positive expectations for the 2nd half of 2016.

The shock decision by the UK electorate, to vote in favour of leaving the EU, has turned all of this on its head.

Prospects for 2016, 2017 and 2018 now look much more challenging.

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July 19, 2016