From the Fraser commentary – 20 years of Devolution

It is 20 years since the devolved Scottish Parliament was established.

In many ways, the Scottish economy has been greatly transformed over that period.

What the next 20 years will hold is obviously uncertain. But with Brexit, the possibility of IndyRef2 and major structural shifts in our economy guaranteed, it is clearly going to be a period of further upheaval.Continue reading

June 26, 2019

Scottish economy remains resilient, but Brexit uncertainty continues to erode long-term growth prospects

Risks from new Fiscal Framework likely to hit Scottish Budget in years ahead

The Scottish economy may have grown by its fastest rate in two years in the first quarter of 2019, but the risks to Scotland’s growth prospects have not gone away, says the University of Strathclyde-based Fraser of Allander Institute.

In its latest Economic Commentary, supported by Deloitte, the research institute highlights how much of the recent up-pick in growth is likely to have stemmed from firms implementing ‘no deal’ contingency plans. Underlying growth – particularly in key sectors of the economy – remains fragile.Continue reading

The latest Fraser of Allander Scottish Business Monitor

Today the latest Scottish Business Monitor (SBM) was published.

2019 marks the 22nd year the SBM has been run by the Fraser of Allander. The survey provides a snapshot of activity in the Scottish economy well in advance of official data. It also acts as a gauge of future activity levels by monitoring the optimism level of firms.

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June 17, 2019

May Scottish Economy Nowcasts

This morning the latest UK data for growth in Q1 2019 were released. These put UK growth at 0.5% in Q1, with growth in production, construction and service sectors.

In this blog we release our nowcasts of the Scottish economy in Q1 2019 and Q2 2019.

The UK numbers were stronger than growth in the previous quarter (which was a disappointing 0.2%), and stronger than might have been expected.

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May 10, 2019

From the Fraser Commentary – Scotland’s domestic policy agenda

One consequence of the Brexit debate is that it has left little room for discussions of the emerging structural challenges and opportunities our economy is facing.

So what are these big policy questions?

First and foremost, the sustainable growth challenge is arguably still something that remains inadequately addressed in the political discourse in Scotland.

For all our economy’s documented successes, the backdrop is an economy that has grown slowly for the best part of a decade.

We have clear strengths in sectors and firms across the Scotland, from food & drink, financial services, energy and tourism. Our workforce is highly skilled with our university sector world class.

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April 17, 2019