FAI Deputy Directors Emma Congreve and João Sousa join economist Hannah Randolph to discuss the Scottish Budget for 2025-26. We discuss the surprise announcement about mitigation of the two-child limit, spending on housing, and hospitality relief. We conclude by talking through the implications of omitting employers National Insurance rises from the forecasts on public sector pay, including potential issues for local councils in setting their budgets for next year.
Episode Notes
PARTICIPANTS
Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Emma Congreve, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
TIME STAMPS
(0:21) Summary of main announcements
(1:37) Mitigation of the two-child limit
(3:42) What has happened with the budget for housing?
(5:15) Hospitality relief – similar to relief in England & Wales?
(8:30) Implications of omitting employer NICs from forecasts on public sector pay
(13:43) Income tax and what the SFC forecasts tell us about future years
(19:22) Further analysis – what to look out for
Authors
Hannah is a Fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute. She specialises in applied social policy analysis with a focus on social security, poverty and inequality, labour supply, and immigration.
Emma Congreve is Principal Knowledge Exchange Fellow and Deputy Director at the Fraser of Allander Institute. Emma's work at the Institute is focussed on policy analysis, covering a wide range of areas of social and economic policy. Emma is an experienced economist and has previously held roles as a senior economist at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation and as an economic adviser within the Scottish Government.
João is Deputy Director and Senior Knowledge Exchange Fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute. Previously, he was a Senior Fiscal Analyst at the Office for Budget Responsibility, where he led on analysis of long-term sustainability of the UK's public finances and on the effect of economic developments and fiscal policy on the UK's medium-term outlook.