by Brian Ashcroft, Fraser of Allander Institute. First appeared on Scottish Economy Watch.
In this blog I shall set out some notes on the nature and direction of the impact of Brexit on the Scottish economy. The Fraser of Allander Institute will be revising its forecasts of Scottish GDP growth, job creation and unemployment in the coming weeks in the light of Brexit where specific numbers will be put on the forecast effects. This blog should in no way be seen as anticipating what the Fraser of Allander Institute will forecast or the nature and direction of anticipated effects identified by the Institute. What I write here is my personal view.
It is useful to use the analytical time frames of the short run and the long run in considering the economic effects of Brexit – see the excellent analysis by theNational Institute for Economic and Social Research back in May.
By the short run, I mean a time horizon that stretches from now until roughly the end of 2017. By the end of 2017 the medium to long-term effects gradually start to kick in. But such effects only begin to make themselves felt after Britain has gone through the Article 50 process and finally leaves the EU with a new trading relationship between the EU and the UK agreed and that won’t be until 2019 or even later.