Earlier this afternoon, Work and Pension Secretary Liz Kendall made a statement to the House of Commons outlining the main areas of ‘Pathways to Work”, the UK Government’s Green Paper that has been in the rumour mill for weeks. The statement contained some well trailed announcements and some new details, although there are also still some significant gaps in our understanding.

PIP will not be frozen, but eligibility will be restricted

The Secretary of State’s headline announcement was in line with news over the weekend, which suggested that rates will not be frozen. Instead, the criteria for getting the daily living element of the Personal Independence Payment (PIP) will be raised, with a minimum of four points on one daily living activity.

The Green Paper in this section is heavily focussed on the ‘sustainability’ of the disability benefits system, and on needing to make the system more ‘pro-work.’ It’s worth noting, however, that work status is unrelated to being in receipt of disability benefits, which are designed to address the additional costs of living with a disability, whether or not someone is in work.

Sustainability too is a nebulous concept in this space. But while it makes sense to talk about sustainability of the public finances as a whole, it is not immediately clear that a growing area of spending is necessarily unsustainable, especially when responding to a clear need in society. The Government has choices – for example, to raise taxes or to cut other areas of spending. So far from being a macroeconomic imperative, to focus on disability benefits seems clearly a political choice.

There is little in the way of details of how much the UK Government intends to save in the Green Paper, but the Secretary of State mentioned the much bandied about £5bn by 2029-30 that it intends to include in the OBR forecast. We do not know how much of this figure will be generated from PIP rather than other changes.

What we now know is that the whole of the spending reductions on PIP will come from the lower end of the average award, as it is being driven through the raising the bar for claiming. But that also means that all else equal, even more people will lose access to the benefit. A quick calculation suggests that for every £1bn a year saved, it could mean around a quarter of a million fewer people receiving PIP, which would be a huge change.

Work capability assessment scrapped from 2028

This is a significant change, and one for which consequences in Scotland are still unknown. At the moment, the work capability assessment (WCA) is used to assess fitness for work. From 2028, the assessment for PIP will instead be used as the basis for universal credit (UC) elements related to health conditions.

This creates an issue in Scotland, because Social Security Scotland carries out the (different) assessment for Adult Disability Payment (ADP), which is the devolved equivalent of PIP. But UC is a reserved benefit administered by DWP, and that means that potential claimants in Scotland would not have access to the PIP assessment that would be used for determining eligibility for health-related UC elements. And with the PIP assessment being tightened, it will be likely further out of step with ADP.

We’ll have to wait and see what solution there will be to this – the Green Paper merely states that “consideration will be needed.” But this is an important issue that requires action on the part of both UK and Scottish departments to ensure access by claimants to this is maintained. It highlights a broader issue of the interaction between the benefits systems which is likely to be put under further strain as systems evolve separately in Scotland.

On a broader point, these proposed changes come at a time when people in receipt of Employment and Support Allowance are due to be migrated to UC by the end of 2026. Our research with people with learning disabilities showed that many are already really concerned about the upcoming changes, and these will be further changes to an already complex system. It will be crucial to clearly communicate all the changes, particularly in accessible formats.

UC rates to be rebalanced, and access to health elements restricted for those under 22

The Secretary of State also announced a big change in the relative levels of the standard and health elements of UC. The health element of UC – which is paid on top of the standard allowance – will be frozen in cash terms for the rest of the decade for those already in receipt of it, and new claims will be paid at around half the current rate (£50/week compared with the current £97/week). Alongside this, the UK Government says it will uprate the UC standard allowance by more than inflation (6% in 2026-27).

The health element of UC will also be tightened in several ways. One is that claimants will be expected to have “much more active engagement and support” in relation to work. The other large change proposed is the consultation on delaying access to the health element of UC until potential claimants are 22, with the justification being the lower likelihood of those in receipt of that element being in employment as well as the fact that those under 22 will be covered by the Youth Guarantee of employment support, training or an apprenticeship. We note, however, that employability is an area of devolved competence, and indeed a similar scheme already exists in Scotland.

A consultation on a new ‘unemployment insurance’

The UK Government is consulting on an interesting proposal for a unified ‘unemployment insurance’ benefit, which would replace both contribution-based Jobseeker’s Allowance and Employment and Support Allowance with a single, time-limited entitlement. This is a step more in the direction of most European systems, in which contributory systems provide a much higher level of income replacement than UC, although for a limited period of time. The proposed rate is much higher than contributory JSA, which has never been a big part of the welfare system in the UK.

Higher income replacement systems are the basis of highly successful active labour market policy systems such as the Danish ‘flexicurity’ approach, and which could help smooth out cliff-edges in the labour market and incentivise retraining, but this proposal – while probably a good idea – falls well short of that kind of system. In any case, it’s also purely consultative – and as it might well cost money on net (at least in the short run), we wait to see if anything will come of this.

‘Right to try’ – a welcome development

One of the measures mentioned in the Green Paper that could have a big positive impact is the announcement of legislation to guarantee that simply starting work will not lead to a reassessment or award review. The fact that this can happen at the moment is acts as a barrier to entering employment, especially if people want to work but are unsure if it will be a good fit for their situation as they might have to reapply for benefits subsequently.

Our research with people with learning disabilities indicates that this ‘right to try’ approach might work well, as the binary ‘can work/can’t work’ doesn’t fit well for them. Many people want to work and just need the right support – so we are hopeful that some of these changes will provide just that.

We know very little about how most of the announcements will affect Scotland

PIP is being replaced in Scotland with ADP, and migration is expected to be concluded this year. None of the announcements therefore affect Scottish claimants of ADP, but they do affect the finances of the Scottish Government. As we discussed last week, the Scottish Government’s block grant adjustment is based on the projected expenditure in England and Wales, and therefore a tightening of access to PIP will (all else equal) make the Scottish Budget worse off. It is then the Scottish Government’s decision to move in lockstep or to find the additional funds from other sources.

Because the Green Paper has no costings for how much of the £5bn a year in savings comes from PIP, it’s impossible for us to say how much this will mean for the Scottish Government’s Budget. But the ready-reckoner we provided last time out – showing an effect of £90-115m for every £1bn reduction in PIP spending by the UK Government – still applies.

As we discussed before, the use of the PIP assessment for health-related UC claims is problematic in the absence of any further action, as this is not available in Scotland and the systems are diverging. The UK Government’s Green Paper says this will require “consideration”, but this is a pretty substantial change that we hope will be solved in good time. Given the proposal is for this to be done from April 2026, it is fairly urgent to get this resolved.

Employability support is a devolved area, but the UK Government says it will include an additional £1 billion to create a guarantee of personalised employment, health and skills support. Given that, we’d expect Barnett consequentials to flow from this, but the Green Paper does not explicitly state that – we’ll wait to see if there are news on this.

The restrictions on health-related UC claims for under 22s will apply in Scotland, as it’s a reserved benefit. Notwithstanding the issues with the PIP/ADP assessment compatibility, this is an area where there has certainly been growth in the past few years: in December 2024, 11,300 people aged 16-21 were in receipt of the health element of UC, compared with 4,600 in December 2019. This gives us a first glimpse of the amount of people that might be affected by this change if it were to be introduced.