Spending Round 2019: what does it mean for the Scottish budget?

As had been widely expected, UK Chancellor Sajid Javid used today’s Spending Round to announce significant increases in UK Government resource spending – to fund day-to-day public services – in 2020/21.

The announcements amount to an additional £12bn of resource spending next year relative to the plans that his predecessor Phillip Hammond had already pencilled in. This including a substantial uplift to schools spending (£2.6bn), extra resources for social care (£1bn), and for the police (£750m).

Of course these figures relate to spending in England. But the increases in spending in England will generate an uplift to the Scottish block grant, via the Barnett Formula.Continue reading

September 4, 2019

Budget 2019-20: what next?

This spring the Scottish Budget for 2019-20 secured safe passage through Parliament.

Once again, the debate – at least outside parliament – focussed upon the familiar issues of income tax rates and local government budgets.

But important longer-term trends are starting to emerge which will shape the Scottish budget in new ways. With the next election just over two years away, these issues are likely to increase in importance as the campaign approaches.

In this blog, we set out five key issues to watch out for.Continue reading

April 23, 2019

Spring Statement 2019: route-map to an unlikely destination?

Shorn of major policy announcements, the Spring Statement is an opportunity for the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to update its economic and fiscal forecasts, and for the Chancellor to announce policy reviews on everything from minimum wages to biodiversity.

So how have the forecasts changed since October 2018?Continue reading

March 13, 2019

Scottish Budget Analysis Event

This morning we held an event giving an overview of the Scottish Budget unveiled earlier this week.

The slides from this event are available for download here, and are provided below.

December 14, 2018