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Scottish Economy

The Sannox sets sail, but is Ardrossan being left behind?

The inaugural voyage of the Glen Sannox last month marked the end of the long and arduous process of delivering an upgraded ferry linking Arran to Scotland’s mainland.

Commissioning the Glen Sannox began in 2015 and marked a significant milestone in the government’s capital investment programmes.

Since then, rising costs and a host of other well-publicised issues with building the ferry meant that delivery of the boat was delayed, costing the government well above the £97m budget initially set for both the Glen Sannox and its unfinished sister ship, the Glen Rosa, now estimated to be over £400m in total.

In this blog, we consider the impacts on Ardrossan – we will follow up in the next week or so with a blog about the impact on Arran, particularly given the longer sailing time and reduced daily sailings.

What about Ardrossan?

The ferry linking Brodick, in Arran, to Scotland’s mainland in Ardrossan has existed in some capacity since the 1800s and is one of Scotland’s busiest ferry routes to date.

When the new ferry to service this route was commissioned, it became apparent that the port in Ardrossan was not fit to accommodate a boat of this scale, given the size and shape of the port and berth. The Ardrossan Harbour Project was given the green light in 2017 (with the preferred design option being approved in 2018) by then-transport minister Humza Yousaf, signalling a new investment in Ardrossan as a transport hub and leisure district.

Unfortunately, this investment also was beset with delays and then the Covid-19 pandemic intervened, which meant that the costs associated with the re-development were significantly higher than originally planned. As a result, Transport Scotland announced a review of the business case in 2023 for the project to understand the true cost of the re-development.

Given the need to re-develop the port in Ardrossan and the progression in delivering the Glen Sannox, it was decided that the service would be temporarily relocated to run via Troon, while the redevelopment work, expected to last 2 years, was carried out.

Fast forward to the present day, and as the first journey of the Glen Sannox from Troon to Brodick took place, the redevelopment of the Ardrossan Harbour has yet to begin with the business case for the project still under review.

With a permanent decision yet to be made on if and when the works will commence in Ardrossan, there exists a high degree of uncertainty for those in Ardrossan, including residents and businesses.

Without any future commitment to re-develop the Ardrossan Harbour, or the ferry moving to Troon in a more permanent capacity, the long-term implications for Ardrossan are uncertain.

A cornerstone of the Ardrossan economy

In Ardrossan, the ferry provides a key source of footfall, supporting local employment and economic activity in an area rife with deprivation. A key part of the decision to invest in the harbour in Ardrossan in 2018 was that doing so would help to boost inclusion and reduce deprivation in Ardrossan and surrounding towns.

Both Ardrossan and Arran sit within the local authority of North Ayrshire, one of the most deprived local authorities in Scotland.

Whilst some of the key routes out of poverty include increased employment, improved education and better public services, Ardrossan currently struggles across most of these domains. Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) data highlights that around 21% of households are deemed income deprived, compared to 7% in Arran and 17% in North Ayrshire as a whole.

In addition, 17% of households in Ardrossan are deemed deprived as a result of exclusion from the labour market, compared to 13% in North Ayrshire overall.

The longstanding history of a ferry service in Ardrossan means that the local economy has been built around the presence of the ferry service.

Examining the employment makeup of Ardrossan, it is notable that while the Health and Social Care sector is the largest employer (as discussed below), sectors such as Wholesale and Retail, Transportation and Storage, and Accommodation and Food Services also account for significant shares of employment.

These sectors stand to benefit greatly from both the substantial footfall generated by the ferry and the operational needs of the ferry itself, particularly within the transportation sector.

Chart 1: Healthcare and retail dominate employment in Ardrossan [Share of employment in 2023]

Source: NOMIS/ BRES

The ferry serves as a welcome means of alleviating some of the adverse economic conditions in the town, connecting it to a wider pool of employment and bringing tourists and visitors to the town to spend money in local shops, cafes, and restaurants.

This is particularly crucial for the local labour market, given the lack of opportunity evident in Ardrossan.

When looking at the claimant-to-vacancy ratio, the measure of those on employment-related benefits relative to the number of vacancies in the area, we can see that since January 2024, Ardrossan has had significantly lower vacancies relative to the number of people claiming unemployment benefits. This shows that employment opportunities are already significantly limited.

Chart 2: Ardrossan has fewer jobs per claimant than Arran, North Ayrshire and Scotland

Source: Adzuna, NOMIS

The concern, therefore, is that this temporary removal of the ferry service during the redevelopment, or, if the decision is made not to proceed, any more permanent relocation of the service to Troon has significant consequences for the town of Ardrossan.

In recent weeks, locals have expressed their concerns about the loss of footfall through Ardrossan and its impact on their businesses (STV, Ardrossan Herald) with the situation causing huge uncertainty for the future of their business.

Sannox saga ends, but the wait goes on for Ardrossan

While the Glen Sannox’s arrival will be a welcome relief for many and will ease some pressure, a huge decision remains. Troon may serve as a pragmatic alternative while the repairs to MV Caledonian Isles are carried out, but the longer Ardrossan is left with this uncertainty, the more negative the outlook for the town appears.

Ardrossan was identified in 2018 as the best location for the ferry route due to the economic benefits, shorter journey times and superior onward transport links.

While the rising costs of the Ardrossan Harbour Project are a legitimate concern, it is important to note that an extended switch to Troon will not be without cost.

With one of the key features of the Glen Sannox being its use of LNG fuel, a more environmentally friendly means to power a ship than diesel, the construction of suitable storage facilities being delayed until a firm decision on the future location is made will likely add further costs to the project.

For example, the LNG used to fuel these new ships is being imported from Qatar to Kent, before being driven some 460 miles to Scotland in tankers. This journey will be required once or twice a week to fuel the ship until storage facilities are built (BBC).

The added inconvenience and weaker travel links from Glasgow city centre to Troon may also reduce leisure travel and tourism in the long run, which is a key source of economic activity in these areas.

Furthermore, a permanent cessation of the ferry service from Ardrossan could put at risk the wider Ardrossan Harbour Project, meaning the town will also lose out on employment and visitor appeal associated with a new retail and leisure district.

The temporary relocation of the ferry base to Troon has also raised numerous concerns for residents in Arran. Notably, the journey to Brodick is more than 20 minutes longer from Troon than Ardrossan, and the number of daily sailings has been cut from 5 to 3, potentially impacting day-to-day life for those living on Arran and using the service frequently.

The return of MV Caledonian Isles in March cannot come quickly enough for Ardrossan, but it should not be treated as a makeweight for the new ferries to continue operating out of Troon. Already beyond its expected operational life, Caledonian Isles does not represent a long-term safeguard to ferry services operating out of Ardrossan.

Lessons from Stranraer

Lessons could potentially be learned from Stranraer, which has seen a significant downturn following the cessation of the ferry service to Northern Ireland in November 2011 (when it moved up the coast to Cairnryan). It is, of course, impossible to make definitive causal links, but interviews with residents link the difficulties directly to that decision over 10 years ago, with much of the promised investment to stave off the economic consequences not materialising (BBC).

Chart 3: Productivity in Stranraer has yet to recover since the ferry was removed in November 2011

Source: Office for National Statistics

Lessons for the government?

The delays over the decision for the investment in Ardrossan are symptomatic of a wider reluctance to make decisions over how to reshape the Government’s capital programme in the wake of the pandemic and the inflationary spike that followed. There are particular complications for the Ardrossan works, such as the ownership of the harbour (it is privately owned) but these should not be insurmountable in coming to a decision.

The latest version of the Infrastructure Investment Programme has been continually delayed just like the decision over Ardrossan. This lack of clarity over which infrastructure programmes will be taken forward, and which will be set aside, causes great uncertainty more broadly and has been criticised by the Finance and Public Administration Committee in the Scottish Parliament in several pre- and post-budget scrutiny reports over the last few years.

What is required, therefore, is a decision on the future of the ferry port in Ardrossan, to allow those living and working in the area to make more certain decisions on their future, with or without the Glen Sannox.

Look out for our next blog focussing on the impacts on Arran!

Authors

Picture of Mairi Spowage, director of the Fraser of Allander Institute

Mairi is the Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute. Previously, she was the Deputy Chief Executive of the Scottish Fiscal Commission and the Head of National Accounts at the Scottish Government and has over a decade of experience working in different areas of statistics and analysis.

Ben is an Economist Fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute working across a number of projects areas. He has a Masters in Economics from the University of Edinburgh, and a degree in Economics from the University of Strathclyde.

His main areas of focus are economic policy, social care and criminal justice in Scotland. Ben also co-edits the quarter Economic Commentary and has experience in business survey design and dissemination.

Aidan is a Knowledge Exchange Assistant at the Fraser of Allander Institute.