August nowcast update!

We have updated our nowcasting model for the Scottish economy with the latest official statistics and survey data to produce new estimates of economic growth in Scotland in Q2 and Q3 of 2018.

  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2018 Q2 is 0.33% which, at an annual rate, is 1.34%.
  • Our first nowcast for GVA growth in 2018 Q3 is 0.39% which, at an annual rate, is 1.57%.

Relative to our last nowcast update our estimate for Q2 2018 has improved very slightly (up from 0.32%), but on balance the figures still suggest relatively weak growth.

This week, we’ll get revised official data for the Scottish economy when the next set of National Accounts are published. Summer is usually when more substantial revisions are put through the economic accounts – following publication of the latest Input-Output tables for Scotland in July each year – and these are likely to alter the pattern of past growth in Scotland. We’ll provide a short blog summarising these key changes.

All of this will be followed by – on the 19th of next month – the first set of official data covering the performance of the Scottish economy over the period March – June (Q2).

We’ll pick this issue up in more detail, as well as review the wider economic landscape, in the next Fraser Economic Commentary to be published in late September.

August 13, 2018

July Nowcast update…

This blog reports the latest estimate of economic growth in Scotland from our nowcasting model. Unlike previous blog posts, this one only includes estimates for one quarter rather than two.

The reason for this is that the Scottish Government have now shortened the time between the end of the quarter and the release of data on that quarter.

Data for 2018 Q1 (January – March) were released on 27th June 2018, only 88 days after the end of the quarter.

While this is still a longer lag in the release of the data than that for the UK as a whole, it is much shorter than the previous publication lag for Scottish data of around 115 days.

Improvements in the timeliness of regional economic statistics are to be welcomed, and statisticians in the Scottish Government should be congratulated for their work in this area.

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July 11, 2018

Latest nowcasts of the Scottish economy…

Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre
http://www.nowcastingscotland.com 
Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde


Slightly later than usual, here are our monthly nowcasts of the Scottish economy, covering the first two quarters of 2018.

Our model suggests that:

  • GVA growth in 2018 Q1 was 0.29%, or at an annual rate 1.18%
  • GVA growth in 2018 Q2 is 0.29%, or at an annual rate 1.16%

Later on this month the Scottish Government will release official estimates covering the first three months of 2018, against which we can compare our Q1 estimate.

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June 11, 2018

April nowcast update…

With Scottish GDP data out tomorrow, this blog provides a (very!) quick and brief update on our latest estimates of recent and current Scottish GDP:

  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2017Q4  is 0.32% which, at an annual rate, is 1.28%
  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2018Q1 is 0.36% which, at an annual rate, is 1.43%

We will see how close our point estimate is to the data for 2017 Q4 released at 9:30am tomorrow.

For more detailed preview of the new GDP data for 2017 Q4 which are released tomorrow morning, please take a look at our blog from earlier today.

April 3, 2018

March economy nowcasts!

Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre
http://www.nowcastingscotland.com 
Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde


With official estimates of economic growth in Scotland due out next month, we have produced updated estimates of economic growth in Scotland using our nowcasting model for Q4 2017 and Q1 2018.

These estimate that:

  • GVA growth in 2017 Q4 is 0.36% which, at an annual rate, is 1.47%
  • GVA growth in 2018 Q1 is 0.34% which, at an annual rate, is 1.38%

Relative to our estimates from last month, these suggest a slight improvement in our estimate for Q4 (up from 1.25%), and very little change in our estimate for Q1 2018 (which was 1.4%).

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March 6, 2018