April nowcast update…

With Scottish GDP data out tomorrow, this blog provides a (very!) quick and brief update on our latest estimates of recent and current Scottish GDP:

  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2017Q4  is 0.32% which, at an annual rate, is 1.28%
  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2018Q1 is 0.36% which, at an annual rate, is 1.43%

We will see how close our point estimate is to the data for 2017 Q4 released at 9:30am tomorrow.

For more detailed preview of the new GDP data for 2017 Q4 which are released tomorrow morning, please take a look at our blog from earlier today.

April 3, 2018

March economy nowcasts!

Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre
http://www.nowcastingscotland.com 
Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde


With official estimates of economic growth in Scotland due out next month, we have produced updated estimates of economic growth in Scotland using our nowcasting model for Q4 2017 and Q1 2018.

These estimate that:

  • GVA growth in 2017 Q4 is 0.36% which, at an annual rate, is 1.47%
  • GVA growth in 2018 Q1 is 0.34% which, at an annual rate, is 1.38%

Relative to our estimates from last month, these suggest a slight improvement in our estimate for Q4 (up from 1.25%), and very little change in our estimate for Q1 2018 (which was 1.4%).

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March 6, 2018

February Scottish economy nowcasts!

Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre
http://www.nowcastingscotland.com 
Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde


Last month saw the release of official data on the performance of the Scottish economy in the 3rd quarter of 2017, and confirmed weak headline growth of 0.15%. This month we’ve run our nowcasting model to provide our estimates of economic growth in the Scottish economy in the final quarter of 2017 (2017 Q4) and our first estimates of growth in the current quarter (2018 Q1). We will receive official estimates of growth in 2017 Q4 in a couple of months.

Our latest nowcasts for:

  • GVA growth in 2017 Q4 is 0.31% which, at an annual rate, is 1.25%. This is down a bit from our last estimate at the start of January (which was 1.42%).
  • GVA growth in 2018 Q1 is 0.35% which, at an annual rate, is 1.40%. This is our first nowcast for this quarter.

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February 6, 2018

January Nowcast update!

Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre
http://www.nowcastingscotland.com 
Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde


Happy New Year to all our blog readers!

As usual for the start of the month, we’ve put our nowcasting model to work to produce some new estimates of economic growth in Scotland.

Next week, official estimates will be released by the Scottish Government of the growth in the Scottish economy in the third quarter of 2017.

In advance of this, we provide our final estimate for 2017 Q3 growth and an update for 2017 Q4 growth as follows:

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January 9, 2018

December nowcasts of the Scottish economy

Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre
http://www.nowcastingscotland.com 
Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde


At the start of a big week of news with the Scottish Budget and the first forecasts by the Scottish Fiscal Commission, we’ve run our nowcasting model with the latest official and survey data to estimate current rates of growth in Scotland.

Our model suggest that the disappointing – and well below trend – levels of economic activity experienced over the past couple of years appears to be continuing.

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December 11, 2017