Latest nowcasts of the Scottish economy

With 29th of March now behind us, but with the uncertainty remaining rather than resolved, we have produced a new nowcast for the Scottish economy for Q1 2019.

Since our last nowcast in early March we have received official estimates of GDP growth in 2018 Q4. These place growth in Q4 at +0.3%, slightly ahead of UK growth in Q4 of 0.2%.

This is in line with our last nowcast for Q4 2018 which put growth at 0.29%.

Services growth again outpaced the overall economy with growth of 0.5% in Q4 of 2018, but production sector growth was down -0.9% for the second quarter in a row.

These latest official data put overall growth in Scotland in 2018 at 1.4%, still significantly below long-run trend growth.

Turning to growth in Q1 2019, our latest estimate puts growth at 0.31%, or at an annualised rate 1.26%.

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April 8, 2019

Nowcasts of the Scottish economy

Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre
http://www.nowcastingscotland.com 
Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde


Economic forecasting and nowcasting is notoriously difficult – even more so in a period of heightened economic uncertainty.

With the 29th March looming large on the calendar, economic uncertainty at present is extraordinarily high.

With this in mind, we report the latest results from our nowcasting model for Scotland.

  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2018 Q4 is 0.29% which, at an annual rate, is 1.16%
  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2019 Q1 is 0.31% which, at an annual rate, is 1.24%

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March 11, 2019

Regional growth in 2018 – what happened?

This blog presents research outputs from an Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence project.

ESCoE provides the Office for National Statistics with research that addresses the challenges of measuring the modern economy, as recommended by Professor Sir Charles Bean in his Independent Review of UK Economics Statistics.

This research was undertaken by Strathclyde researchers Gary Koop @gary_koop, Stuart McIntyre @stuartgmcintyre and Aubrey Poon, and Warwick Business School’s James Mitchell

The blog below was first posted here: https://www.escoe.ac.uk/regional-growth-in-2018-what-happened/  Continue reading

February 21, 2019

Latest nowcasts of the Scottish economy

Just before Christmas the latest estimates of GDP growth in Scotland, covering the 3rd quarter of 2018, were released by the Scottish Government.

These data showed that growth in Scotland in Q3 was 0.3%, half the rate of the UK over the same period.

This represented a slowing of growth in Scotland relative to the previous quarter (in which growth was 0.5%).

Our latest nowcast for the Scottish economy covers the final quarter of 2018, and these suggest that growth in 2018 Q4 was 0.36% which, at an annual rate, is 1.46%. This is broadly in line with growth in the previous quarter.

The shape of economic growth in the UK and Scotland in the first three months of 2019 will of course be shaped by preparations for Brexit, and the extent of the resolution of the current uncertainty around Brexit.

Nevertheless we will provide an initial update in early February with our model predictions for growth in Q1 2019.

January 14, 2019

Latest nowcasts of the Scottish economy!

Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre
http://www.nowcastingscotland.com 
Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde


With the new Fraser Economic Commentary out next Tuesday, which will provide an in-depth assessment of the performance of the Scottish economy, in this blog we provide our latest nowcasts of GDP growth in Scotland.

  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2018 Q3 is 0.35% which, at an annual rate, is 1.42%
  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2018 Q4 is 0.39 which, at an annual rate, is 1.57%

These represent slight downward revisions to our estimates for 2018 Q3 and Q4 released last month.

We will learn the first official estimate of growth in Q3 of 2018 on the 19th of December 2018. Our current nowcast (0.35%) suggests we will see a reduction in the growth rate relative to Q2’s official measure of growth (0.5%).

Since our November nowcast we have had new data on a number of key indicators.

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December 6, 2018