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Economic impact: possible job losses civil aviation and aerospace engineering sectors in Scotland – Modelling analysis for Unite

Unite asked the Fraser of Allander Institute to model the potential impact of job losses in the aviation and engineering sectors. Information on possible job losses was provided by Unite.

The impacts on the economy, including indirect and induced effects, are as follows.

Table 1 highlights the direct, indirect and induced impact of up to 1,500 possible job losses in the civil aviation sector.

The direct effect of this on Scottish GVA is around a £90m loss to the Scottish economy, rising to £140m when wider knock-on effects are captured.

Table 1: Economic impact of 1,500 job losses in the civil aviation sector, Scotland
*totals may not sum due to rounding                                      Source: FAI Calculations

Similarly, Table 2 outlines the impact of up to 1,200 possible job losses in the aerospace engineering sector. If this was to happen, this is estimated to be associated with a £185m reduction in GVA and a decrease in FTE employment of 2,530 across the Scottish economy.

Table 2: Economic impact of 1,226 job losses in the aerospace engineering sector, Scotland
*totals may not sum due to rounding                                       Source: FAI Calculations

Read the full report here.

Authors

The Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) is a leading economy research institute based in the Department of Economics at the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

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