March Nowcasts of the Scottish Economy


Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre
http://www.nowcastingscotland.com 
Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde


The performance of the Scottish economy has been relatively fragile for some time now; growth has slowed since early 2015 and shows little sign of picking up. In this blog we provide the latest update from our nowcasting model for Scotland. Further details on our approach and model are available here.

This month our estimates of growth in the Scottish economy put current growth (Q1 2017) at a modest 0.38%. This remains relatively low by historical standards, although better than some recent quarters.

Our most recent nowcast for 2016 Q4, for which official estimates are released by the Scottish Government next month, put growth at 0.42%. This is very marginally better than our current estimate for 2017 Q1.

Continue reading “March Nowcasts of the Scottish Economy”

Scottish Economy Nowcasts for February


Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre
http://www.nowcastingscotland.com 
Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde


As usual for the start of the month, we release the results from our nowcasting model of the Scottish economy.

Since our last update, we have received data on the performance of the Scottish economy in Q3 of 2016, indicating growth of 0.2%.

These data suggest the continuation two worrying trends, firstly Scotland lagging behind growth in the rest of the UK, and secondly, Scotland underperforming relative to its own long term trend rate of growth. We commented in greater detail on these issues here.

This month, our model estimates:

  • GVA growth in 2016 Q4 of 0.38% which, at an annual rate, is 1.51% (this is down ever so slightly from our last release)
  • GVA growth in 2017 Q1 is 0.40% which, at an annual rate, is 1.59%. This is our first nowcast for 2017 Q1, and is based only on data to 2016 Q4.

Continue reading “Scottish Economy Nowcasts for February”

December nowcast update!


Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre, Fraser of Allander Institute, Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde

This post also appears on our Nowcasting blog: http://www.nowcastingscotland.com


As usual at the start of the month we update our latest nowcasts of the economic growth performance of the Scottish economy.

These nowcasts aim to give a more timely indicator of current economic performance than official statistics which are produced with a considerable lag.

In estimating our nowcasts we make use of a wide variety of different data sources, including the latest business surveys and information on Scotland’s labour market.

Our model produces the following estimates for the third (Jul-Sept) and fourth (Oct-Dec) quarters of 2016:

  • Our latest nowcast for GVA growth in 2016 Q3 is 0.32% which, at an annual rate, is 1.28%.
  • Our first nowcast for GVA growth in 2016 Q4 is 0.37% which, at an annual rate, is 1.50%.

Continue reading “December nowcast update!”

November nowcast update!


Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre, Fraser of Allander Institute, Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde

This post also appears on our Nowcasting blog: http://www.nowcastingscotland.com


As usual at the start of the month we update our latest nowcasts of the economic performance of Scottish economy.

Our model produced the following estimates for the third (Jul-Sept) and fourth (Oct-Dec) quarters of 2016:

  •  Our latest nowcast for GVA growth in 2016 Q3 is 0.37% which, at an annual rate, is 1.48%.
  • Our first nowcast for GVA growth in 2016 Q4 is 0.37% which, at an annual rate, is 1.47%.

Continue reading “November nowcast update!”