Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre
Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
As usual for the start of the month, we release the results from our nowcasting model of the Scottish economy.
Since our last update, we have received data on the performance of the Scottish economy in Q3 of 2016, indicating growth of 0.2%.
These data suggest the continuation two worrying trends, firstly Scotland lagging behind growth in the rest of the UK, and secondly, Scotland underperforming relative to its own long term trend rate of growth. We commented in greater detail on these issues here.
This month, our model estimates:
- GVA growth in 2016 Q4 of 0.38% which, at an annual rate, is 1.51% (this is down ever so slightly from our last release)
- GVA growth in 2017 Q1 is 0.40% which, at an annual rate, is 1.59%. This is our first nowcast for 2017 Q1, and is based only on data to 2016 Q4.
Continue reading “Scottish Economy Nowcasts for February”