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Understanding Economic Shocks Using the FAI HEM Model for Northern Ireland

The impact of businesses extends to more than just the products they create and the turnover they generate. Businesses have complex supply chains that stretch across the whole of Northern Ireland’s economy and beyond.

When businesses face sharp falls in demand, these complex supply chains make it difficult to understand the true impact on output and employment across Northern Ireland. However, three types of models are well suited to understanding supply chain shocks, each useful in different circumstances.

This report looks at one of these – the Fraser of Allander Institute Hypothetical Extraction Method Model for Northern Ireland (or FAI HEM for Northern Ireland).


James is part of the knowledge exchange team, which involves connecting academia to business, government, and the public. He has a Masters in Applied Economics, a degree in Mathematics, Statistics & Economics and is experienced in working on a wide range of projects for public and private sector clients.

Kevin is a Chancellor's Fellow in the Department of Economic with a focus on the use of regional economic models for policy analysis. Areas of interest include; energy and climate change, poverty and tourism.

Mairi is the Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute. Previously, she was the Deputy Chief Executive of the Scottish Fiscal Commission and the Head of National Accounts at the Scottish Government and has over a decade of experience working in different areas of statistics and analysis.