This report provides an assessment of the Welsh Government’s budget during the Sixth Senedd term (2021-26), examining how both the funding and the pattern of public spending
have evolved over that period. It is intended to inform policy debates ahead of the May 2026 Senedd elections by offering an evidence base against which parties’ fiscal commitments and spending priorities can be assessed.
Preface
This report is published as part of 2026 Scotland and Wales Election Analysis, a collaboration between the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University and Fraser of
Allander at the University of Strathclyde, with support from the Nuffield Foundation.
The Nuffield Foundation is an independent charitable trust with a mission to advance social well-being. It funds and undertakes rigorous research, encourages innovation and supports the use of sound evidence to inform social and economic policy, and improve people’s lives. The Nuffield Foundation is the founder and co-funder of the Nuffield Council on Bioethics, the Ada Lovelace Institute and the Nuffield Family Justice Observatory. Find out more at: nuffieldfoundation.org. All views expressed in the following report are those of the authors and not necessarily the Foundation.
Wales Fiscal Analysis (WFA) is a research body within Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre that undertakes authoritative and independent research into the public finances,
taxation, and public expenditures of Wales.
The WFA programme adds public value by commenting on the implications of fiscal events such as UK and Welsh budgets, monitoring and reporting on government expenditure and tax
revenues in Wales and publishing academic research and policy papers that investigate matters of importance to Welsh public finance, options for tax policy, and the economics and
future sustainability of health and social care services in Wales.
Working with partners in Scotland, Northern Ireland, the UK, and other European countries, we also contribute to the wider UK and international debate on the fiscal dimension of devolution and decentralisation of government.
Authors
Guto Ifan
Guto is Lecturer in Politics and International Relations at Cardiff University and part of the Wales Governance Centre
Ed Gareth Poole
Ed is Reader in Reader in Politics at Cardiff University and part of the Wales Governance Centre
Owain Roberts
Owain is Research Assistant at Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre