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Long-term Economic Implications of Brexit

Over the long term (i.e. 10+ years), most economists predict that the decision to leave the EU will have a negative impact on trade, labour mobility and investment.

To date studies have concentrated on the UK as a whole. At the same time, they have tended to focus on the aggregate economic impact, with little assessment of the different impacts by sector.

This report closes this gap by providing an inter-regional and multi-sectoral analysis of Brexit on Scotland and the rest of the UK.

To undertake this analysis we examine the geographical pattern of Scottish international exports and identify the sectors most exposed to any changing trading relationship with the EU. We then make use of an inter-regional macroeconomic model of Scotland and the rest of the UK to examine the long-term impact on the Scottish economy

Authors

The Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) is a leading economy research institute based in the Department of Economics at the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.