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Feasibility Study on Developing Trade Modelling for Scotland

Growing Scotland’s export base has been a key objective of successive Scottish administrations. Internationalisation is one of the four principal drivers of growth within the current Scottish Government’s Economic Strategy. However, the UK’s decision to leave the EU has the potential to impact on many of Scotland’s existing trading patterns in new and perhaps significant ways.

Whilst debate continues over the arguments for and against Brexit, one thing that we can be confident is that, with currently around 45% of international exports destined for the EU, any change in Scotland’s trade links with the Single Market has the potential to have far reaching consequences for sectors and firms across the country.

Post-Brexit, new opportunities arising from the UK agreeing trade deals with third countries may also be possible, though this will depend on what is finally agreed regarding the long-term trading relationship with the EU.

The aim of this report is to consider options for developing this capacity and to inform resource planning in the Scottish Government.

Authors

James is a Fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute. He specialises in applied analysis of trade and climate change. His work includes the production of economic statistics to improve our understanding of the economy, economic modelling and analysis to enhance the use of these statistics for policymaking, data visualisation to communicate results impactfully, and economic policy to understand how data can be used to drive decisions in Government.

Daniel Borbely Strathclyde University
Daniel Borbely

Gioele is a Lecturer in the Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde.  Gioele has expertise in regional macroeconomic modelling and on the analysis of impacts of regional policies on the wider economy.  His current research focusses on the impact of energy, tourism, fiscal and trade policies. He leads the development and application of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models for policy analysis in the Department.

Picture of Graeme Roy, director of the Fraser of Allander Institute
Graeme Roy

Dean of External Engagement in the College of Social Sciences at Glasgow University and previously director of the Fraser of Allander Institute.

Mairi is the Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute. Previously, she was the Deputy Chief Executive of the Scottish Fiscal Commission and the Head of National Accounts at the Scottish Government and has over a decade of experience working in different areas of statistics and analysis.