FAI Economic Commentary, 2018 Q4

The Scottish economic growth in 2018 is on track to be at its highest rate since 2014, according to the latest economic commentary.  The Institute predicts growth of 1.4% in 2019, 1.5% in 2020 and 1.4% in 2021 – presuming the UK secures smooth transition from the EU.

A disorderly Brexit remains the biggest threat to Scottish jobs and growth.  The Bank of England have set out a ‘worst-case’ scenario which could see the UK economy shrink by around 8% from 2019.

To put that in context, this would be around double the size of the recession Scotland witnessed during the financial crisis, and would be equivalent to an extra 100,000 people unemployed in Scotland.

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The Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) is a leading economy research institute based in the Department of Economics at the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

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Founded in 1975, the Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary is the leading publication on the Scottish economy and offers an authoritative and independent analysis of the key issues of the day.