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FAI Economic Commentary, 2018 Q2

Scottish economic growth is set to recover this year but remain below trend, according to analysis by the University of Strathclyde’s Fraser of Allander Institute.

In its latest Economic Commentary, the Institute forecasts a 1.2% increase in Scottish GDP in 2018 and 1.3% growth in 2019, making its outlook more optimistic than the government’s own official forecaster the Scottish Fiscal Commission.

The researchers cite a strengthening oil & gas sector, a robust global economy and a pick-up in household and business confidence as key factors driving its assessment.

Nevertheless, the Institute cautions that following the disruption to the economy from the ‘beast from the east’ in March, new Scottish GDP data to be published next week is likely to show weak growth (if any) for the first three months of 2018. But if this is indeed the case, any such an impact should be temporary with growth bouncing back later in the year.

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Founded in 1975, the Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary is the leading publication on the Scottish economy and offers an authoritative and independent analysis of the key issues of the day.