This page covers our most complex models, including CGE and econometric models. See our page on economic impact analysis for modelling that analyses the impacts of the purchases and sales of an organisation, project or sector.
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)
The Fraser of Allander Institute has a long history in developing and using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models.
A version of one of our models is now used by the Scottish Government. It has also been adapted and used with our support by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA).
Our full suite of modelling capabilities are accessible via the Scottish Policy Foundation.
CGE models allow for much more analysis than the typical (input-output) model used by the majority of consultancies. Input-output models only allow the impact of ‘demand-shocks’, e.g. the impact of sales or purchases. CGE models extend this to also include ‘supply-shocks’, e.g. the impact of improvements in labour productivity and skills.
Examples of reports using our CGE models in the press are:
- BBC News: Colleges could generate £20bn for the Scottish economy
- The Guardian: Hard Brexit could cost Scotland £2,000 a head and 80,000 jobs
Much of this work has been funded by multi-year awards from prestigious academic research councils.
Econometric Models
In addition to our work on CGE modelling, we have also developed a range of econometric models and tools to inform policymaking.
For example, through a research grant awarded as part of the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, funded by the Office for National Statistics, we have developed a model for nowcasting growth in the regions and nations of the UK. This enables us to produce higher frequency, quarterly, estimates of regional growth to a similar timetable as ONS estimates of UK wide growth. Given that only annual data is currently available for the English regions, and other short term indicators in the other nations of the UK are released with a longer lag, this work provides a substantial improvement in the information available to sub-national policymakers.
Why choose us?
The FAI is home to some of the lead academics in the field of economic modelling.
Over the years, our team has made a world renowned contributions to economic modelling.
We have advised governments – internationally, nationally and locally – central banks and major private sector institutions.
A list of academic papers published by our researchers can be found on our Economic Research page.