Budget 2020/21 – key issues to watch for

On Thursday, Mr Mackay will present his fourth budget – the penultimate budget before next year’s elections. The budget will be delivered against the backdrop of the UK’s recent departure from the EU, significant frictions between both governments on issues ranging from constitutional change to budget timing, devolution of major …

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The timing of the Scottish budget 2020/21: implications, uncertainties and risks

So now we know: the UK Budget will be presented on 11 March, having been postponed from its original date of 6 November. What are the implications for the Scottish budget? It seems now inevitable that the Scottish budget will have to be published in some form before 11 March. …

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FAI Commentary: The outlook for the Scottish Budget 2020/21

This blog post contains the policy context chapter of our economic commentary, published today. The latest economic commentary can be found here. Budget 2020/21 will be the fourth of five to be set in this parliament. Normally of course it would have been published by now – the Scottish Government …

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Demographic projections and income tax revenues under the fiscal framework: implications for the Scottish budget

Frantisek Brocek[1] and David Eiser Under Scotland’s fiscal framework, Scotland’s budget will be better off (than it would have been without tax devolution) if income tax revenues per capita grow more quickly than they do in the rest of the UK (rUK). Some have argued that demographic projections for Scotland …

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2019 General Election: a review of the manifestos from a Scottish perspective

Inevitably, the defining feature of all the manifestos this election is the spectre of constitutional change. For the UK-wide parties this is an issue of Brexit (or stopping Brexit), whilst in Scotland there is the added question of independence. Beyond these major constitutional debates, reading UK election manifestos can feel …

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The Scottish budget 2020/21: postponed for now… but til when?

The Scottish Government had been due to publish its draft budget for 2020/21 on 12th December. The postponement of the UK Government’s budget – which had been scheduled for 6th November – had already thrown the status of the Scottish budget date into doubt. But the announcement of the General …

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Presentations from Scotland’s Budget Report 2019 Event

On Tuesday we published our fourth annual Scotland’s Budget Report. This was accompanied by an event at the National Museum of Scotland. Alongside the FAI analysis, Paul Johnson, Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Andy King from the Office for Budget Responsibility, Caroline Gardner, Scotland’s Auditor General, and Charlotte …

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Key points from our Scotland’s Budget Report 2019

Today we published our 4th annual Scotland’s Budget Report. The latest report shows that the Scottish Government’s resource budget in the past three years has evolved more healthily than was anticipated at the start of the parliamentary term in 2016, due to both UK government spending increases and Scottish government …

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Latest data on earnings growth and possible implications for the Scottish budget

Today’s release of annual earnings data shows that average annual earnings grew slightly more quickly in Scotland than in the UK between April 2018 and 2019… (2.9% in Scotland v. 2.7% in UK; or in real terms, 0.8% v. 0.6%). More strikingly, earnings in the top half of the distribution …

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