The University of Strathclyde
Today we published our 4th annual Scotland’s Budget Report. The latest report shows that the Scottish Government’s resource budget in the past three years has evolved more healthily than was anticipated at the start of the parliamentary term in 2016, due to both UK government spending increases and Scottish government …
Key points from our Scotland’s Budget Report 2019 Read More »
Today’s release of annual earnings data shows that average annual earnings grew slightly more quickly in Scotland than in the UK between April 2018 and 2019… (2.9% in Scotland v. 2.7% in UK; or in real terms, 0.8% v. 0.6%). More strikingly, earnings in the top half of the distribution …
Latest data on earnings growth and possible implications for the Scottish budget Read More »
Last month’s UK Spending Round announced increases in UK Government resource spending of 4.1% in real terms next year. Will the Scottish block grant increase by more or less than this, and why? And what will this mean for the Scottish budget? Departmental spending plans of the UK Government affect …
What’s happening to the Scottish block grant in 2020/21? Read More »
Yesterday afternoon the Scottish Government published its annual ‘Fiscal Framework Outturn Report’. It reports outturn tax and social security spend data for 2018/19 (2017/18 for income tax) and discusses the budget implications. By necessity it is a dry report. But if you don’t want to battle your way through it, …
As had been widely expected, UK Chancellor Sajid Javid used today’s Spending Round to announce significant increases in UK Government resource spending – to fund day-to-day public services – in 2020/21. The announcements amount to an additional £12bn of resource spending next year relative to the plans that his predecessor …
Spending Round 2019: what does it mean for the Scottish budget? Read More »
Wednesday’s Spending Review will influence the size of the Scottish budget in 2020/21. But it is just one piece of the jigsaw – with the other pieces not becoming available until later in the year. In normal times, the publication of a UK Government Spending Review would be a major …
Spending Review 2019: how might it affect the Scottish Budget? Read More »
Last week, we had the first set of income tax reconciliations for Scotland’s new fiscal framework. For the coming year, that reconciliation figure will be around £200m. In the aftermath of the publication of these figures, there were reports that Scotland was also in receipt of a £700m ‘bail-out’ from …
Has the Scottish Government received a £700m ‘bail-out’ from the UK Government? Read More »
Today, HMRC published the first ever figures on the scale of ‘income tax reconciliations’ for Scotland. These ‘reconciliations’ – whilst being a largely dry technical issue – are a key part of Scotland’s new fiscal framework. These income tax reconciliations are reflections of the fact that Scottish budgets are initially …
In an article in yesterday’s Commentary, David Eiser and Graeme Roy preview the 2021 review of the Fiscal Framework. This blog provides a quick overview of that article. The review In recent years, the Scottish Parliament has been taking on new fiscal responsibilities – with more to follow. In 2021, …
It has been widely publicised that the Scottish budget may face income tax ‘reconciliations’ totalling £1bn over the next few years. But what are these reconciliations and why do they come about? Do they tell us anything about Scotland’s economic performance, or do they just reflect forecast error?