Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre
Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
With official estimates of economic growth in Scotland due out next month, we have produced updated estimates of economic growth in Scotland using our nowcasting model for Q4 2017 and Q1 2018.
These estimate that:
- GVA growth in 2017 Q4 is 0.36% which, at an annual rate, is 1.47%
- GVA growth in 2018 Q1 is 0.34% which, at an annual rate, is 1.38%
Relative to our estimates from last month, these suggest a slight improvement in our estimate for Q4 (up from 1.25%), and very little change in our estimate for Q1 2018 (which was 1.4%).