Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre
Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
With the new Fraser Economic Commentary out next Tuesday, which will provide an in-depth assessment of the performance of the Scottish economy, in this blog we provide our latest nowcasts of GDP growth in Scotland.
- Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2018 Q3 is 0.35% which, at an annual rate, is 1.42%
- Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2018 Q4 is 0.39 which, at an annual rate, is 1.57%
These represent slight downward revisions to our estimates for 2018 Q3 and Q4 released last month.
We will learn the first official estimate of growth in Q3 of 2018 on the 19th of December 2018. Our current nowcast (0.35%) suggests we will see a reduction in the growth rate relative to Q2’s official measure of growth (0.5%).
Since our November nowcast we have had new data on a number of key indicators.