Seven bullet points on the latest Fraser Commentary

Today we published our latest Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary.

This short blog summarises our key conclusions in seven bullet points.

  1. Growth in Scotland’s economy is forecast to continue through 2017, 2018 and into 2019. The outlook remains challenging by historical standards.

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Tracking local labour market performance since the Great Recession

On Friday, we published the latest edition of our new quarterly publication – Labour Market Trends – with our colleagues in the Scottish Centre for Employment Research.

The aim of the report is to highlight recent developments in the Scottish labour market and to bring to the fore some of the structural issues that underpin long-term trends in employment, unemployment and activity levels in Scotland.

This quarter we highlight a number of important issues, including the recent rise in inactivity and the uncertainty surrounding interpreting changes in the key headline employment and unemployment data for Scotland.

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What will this week’s labour market data tell us about the outlook for Scottish income tax revenues?

In a little over six weeks, the transfer of Scotland’s new income tax powers will be complete.

With this in mind, each new release of economic or labour market data will now have even greater significance than before. Crucially they will give us an early – albeit imperfect – indicator of whether the Scottish economy is likely to be generating the revenues policymakers are hoping for.

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Yesterday’s data shows Scottish economy remains fragile

Yesterday we had a bumper day of economic statistics for Scotland with new data on Scottish GDP – covering the period July to September 2016 – as well as new employment and unemployment figures – covering the period September to November 2016.

It’s fair to say that there was very little good news – if any – in yesterday’s figures. Continue reading “Yesterday’s data shows Scottish economy remains fragile”

Examining recent trends in inactivity in Scotland’s labour market


David Eiser, FAI


One of the more concerning developments in Scotland’s labour market figures recently – and as discussed in detail in last month’s Labour Market Trends Report – has been the marked uptick in the rate of inactivity among those aged 16-64 (Chart 1).

Granted, the increase in the inactivity rate has only been slightly over one percentage point – equivalent to an increase of around 35,000 people – and the rate remains low in the context of the recent past. But what underlies the recent increase in inactivity, and to what extent should we be concerned by it? Continue reading “Examining recent trends in inactivity in Scotland’s labour market”