Estimating Scotland’s fiscal position


Graeme Roy
Director, Fraser of Allander Institute


There has been a lot of debate in recent days about the statistics covering Scotland’s fiscal position i.e. Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS).

Some of this has focussed upon how GERS is produced and who produces it – this blog attempts to clear some of that up.

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Seven bullet points on the latest Fraser Commentary

Today we published our latest Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary.

This short blog summarises our key conclusions in seven bullet points.

  1. Growth in Scotland’s economy is forecast to continue through 2017, 2018 and into 2019. The outlook remains challenging by historical standards.

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FAI Commentary on GERS, 2015-16


David Eiser,  Stuart McIntyre & Graeme Roy
Fraser of Allander Institute, Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde


Today’s release of Government Expenditure and Revenue Statistics (GERS) is likely to re-ignite the constitutional debate in Scotland; sadly, not in the healthiest or most informed way.

Aside from the usual debate, today’s statistics contain some interesting facts about the upcoming devolution of tax powers to the Scottish Parliament.

Usually this constitutional war of words takes place only once a year, but this year, the GERS figures for 2015-16 have been brought forward from their planned publication in March 2017 to today.

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