Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre, Fraser of Allander Institute, Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde
This post also appears on our Nowcasting blog: http://www.nowcastingscotland.com
We have crunched the numbers on the data on the performance of the different components of the UK and Scottish economies released during August, and we’re got some results to share in terms of what this suggests about Scottish economic growth in the second and third quarters of 2016.
To briefly recap, in our nowcasting work we have been producing monthly estimates of the current growth rate in the Scottish economy for nearly two years now. While experience suggests that our nowcasting models have tended to overestimate Scottish GDP growth, two features of our results are important. First, we have seen that with each revision to official statistics – as a result of more data becoming available – the official estimate has got closer to our nowcast results. Second, while we tend to overestimate the level of GDP growth, we have generally been good at estimating its direction.