Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre, Fraser of Allander Institute, Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde
This post also appears on our Nowcasting blog: http://www.nowcastingscotland.com
As usual at the start of the month we update our latest nowcasts of the economic growth performance of the Scottish economy.
These nowcasts aim to give a more timely indicator of current economic performance than official statistics which are produced with a considerable lag.
In estimating our nowcasts we make use of a wide variety of different data sources, including the latest business surveys and information on Scotland’s labour market.
Our model produces the following estimates for the third (Jul-Sept) and fourth (Oct-Dec) quarters of 2016:
- Our latest nowcast for GVA growth in 2016 Q3 is 0.32% which, at an annual rate, is 1.28%.
- Our first nowcast for GVA growth in 2016 Q4 is 0.37% which, at an annual rate, is 1.50%.