April nowcast update…

With Scottish GDP data out tomorrow, this blog provides a (very!) quick and brief update on our latest estimates of recent and current Scottish GDP:

  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2017Q4  is 0.32% which, at an annual rate, is 1.28%
  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2018Q1 is 0.36% which, at an annual rate, is 1.43%

We will see how close our point estimate is to the data for 2017 Q4 released at 9:30am tomorrow.

For more detailed preview of the new GDP data for 2017 Q4 which are released tomorrow morning, please take a look at our blog from earlier today.

April 3, 2018

How do consumer prices differ across the UK?

Last week the ONS released new data on differences in consumer prices across the UK.

While we get regular (monthly) updates on changes in consumer prices for the UK as a whole, there has long been an understanding that these UK average prices are likely to differ to at least some extent across parts of the UK (as anyone who has ever bought a pint of beer in London can attest!).

In this short blog, we will take a look at these data and see what they show about price differences across the UK. Differences in the price level across the UK (which is what these data show) is different from changes in the price level (which we do not have data on, except for the UK as a whole).

For a variety of reasons, not least arguments about differences in the purchasing power of households and household poverty more generally, differences in the price level can have big implications for our understanding of relative prosperity of households across regions.

Continue reading

March 6, 2018

February Scottish economy nowcasts!

Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre
http://www.nowcastingscotland.com 
Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde


Last month saw the release of official data on the performance of the Scottish economy in the 3rd quarter of 2017, and confirmed weak headline growth of 0.15%. This month we’ve run our nowcasting model to provide our estimates of economic growth in the Scottish economy in the final quarter of 2017 (2017 Q4) and our first estimates of growth in the current quarter (2018 Q1). We will receive official estimates of growth in 2017 Q4 in a couple of months.

Our latest nowcasts for:

  • GVA growth in 2017 Q4 is 0.31% which, at an annual rate, is 1.25%. This is down a bit from our last estimate at the start of January (which was 1.42%).
  • GVA growth in 2018 Q1 is 0.35% which, at an annual rate, is 1.40%. This is our first nowcast for this quarter.

Continue reading

February 6, 2018

Labour Market Update

This blog summarises some of the key insights from the data released this morning.

Today’s labour market data for Scotland show a slight increase in the unemployment rate this quarter of 0.1% points to 4%, although the unemployment rate is still down 0.8% points over the year. Further, while the employment rate is unchanged over the past quarter, it has grown by 1.6% points over the last year.

These data and changes over the past year and quarter are summarised in the table below for different parts of the UK (green shading indicates an improvement for that measure and red shading a worsening of performance on that measure). Scotland continues to have an employment rate above the average for the UK, and an unemployment rate below the average for the UK.

Continue reading

November 15, 2017

Today’s Labour Market Statistics – also a note on interpreting the data

Today saw the release of fresh data on the Scottish labour market from the ONS which (mostly!) cover data up to June 2017. Some additional data only cover the period up to March 2017.The main data can be accessed here.

In this blog, we pull out and highlight the key trends in these data.

Essentially, headline indicators of Scotland’s labour market remain good, but we need to bear in mind that, as always, the health of Scotland’s labour market is more complicated than headline numbers.

Continue reading

August 16, 2017