UK regional growth in a time of economic uncertainty – estimates to 2019 Q2

This blog presents research outputs from an Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence project.

ESCoE provides the Office for National Statistics with research that addresses the challenges of measuring the modern economy, as recommended by Professor Sir Charles Bean in his Independent Review of UK Economics Statistics.

This research was undertaken by Strathclyde researchers Gary Koop @gary_koop, Stuart McIntyre @stuartgmcintyre and Aubrey Poon, and Warwick Business School’s James Mitchell

The blog below was first posted here: https://www.escoe.ac.uk/uk-regional-growth-in-a-time-of-economic-uncertainty-estimates-to-2019-q2/

Continue reading

August 19, 2019

Scottish Budget Analysis Event

This morning we held an event giving an overview of the Scottish Budget unveiled earlier this week.

The slides from this event are available for download here, and are provided below.

December 14, 2018

October nowcast update on the Scottish economy

Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre
http://www.nowcastingscotland.com 
Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde


Recent economic news on the Scottish economy has struck a slightly more upbeat note about the current pace of economic growth.

This comes on the back of growth over the year to June 2018 – whilst still below average – at its fastest since late 2014/early 2015 and the Scottish economy outpacing the UK for the last two quarters.

While, as set out in our latest Fraser Economic Commentary we remain cautiously optimistic, growth is likely to remain below trend for the duration of our forecast horizon. And overall, the immediate outlook for Scotland’s economy remains highly uncertain.

Against this backdrop, the latest nowcasts of economic growth in Scotland from our nowcasting model have been generated.

Continue reading

October 8, 2018

April nowcast update…

With Scottish GDP data out tomorrow, this blog provides a (very!) quick and brief update on our latest estimates of recent and current Scottish GDP:

  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2017Q4  is 0.32% which, at an annual rate, is 1.28%
  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2018Q1 is 0.36% which, at an annual rate, is 1.43%

We will see how close our point estimate is to the data for 2017 Q4 released at 9:30am tomorrow.

For more detailed preview of the new GDP data for 2017 Q4 which are released tomorrow morning, please take a look at our blog from earlier today.

April 3, 2018

How do consumer prices differ across the UK?

Last week the ONS released new data on differences in consumer prices across the UK.

While we get regular (monthly) updates on changes in consumer prices for the UK as a whole, there has long been an understanding that these UK average prices are likely to differ to at least some extent across parts of the UK (as anyone who has ever bought a pint of beer in London can attest!).

In this short blog, we will take a look at these data and see what they show about price differences across the UK. Differences in the price level across the UK (which is what these data show) is different from changes in the price level (which we do not have data on, except for the UK as a whole).

For a variety of reasons, not least arguments about differences in the purchasing power of households and household poverty more generally, differences in the price level can have big implications for our understanding of relative prosperity of households across regions.

Continue reading

March 6, 2018