Estimating Scotland’s fiscal position

Graeme Roy
Director, Fraser of Allander Institute

There has been a lot of debate in recent days about the statistics covering Scotland’s fiscal position i.e. Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS).

Some of this has focussed upon how GERS is produced and who produces it – this blog attempts to clear some of that up.

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Next week’s Scottish GDP – Above the Line??? Just!!

Grant Allan, Stuart McIntyre, Graeme Roy, Fraser of Allander

This week, statisticians in St Andrew’s House will be busy finalising their best estimate of Q1 2016 Scottish GDP.

In advance of its publication, we offer our prediction of what that estimate might be, and crucially what it will tell us about the state of the Scottish economy.

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Welcome to the Fraser of Allander Institute’s new blog!

The ‘Fraser’ has been monitoring and commenting on the Scottish economy for over 40 years. These are exciting times for the Fraser. We’re benefiting from new investment by the University, research bodies and private benefactors which is helping to expand our research team and widen our coverage of real-world economic issues. Read more about our plans here.

There has never been a more important time for impartial analysis and scrutiny of Scottish fiscal and economic policy. Constitutional change is well underway, with no fixed horizon in sight, and with this change comes challenges and opportunities for the Scottish economy. The fiscal responsibilities of the Scottish Parliament are expanding rapidly, with new powers over both taxation and public spending being devolved from Westminster. The recent decision by the UK to leave the European Union will not only have far reaching – and serious – economic implications for the Scottish economy for years to come, but it has also fuelled demands for Scotland to chart a different course in Europe, and even to hold a second Scottish independence referendum.

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