The latest real-time indicators reflect that of an economy gearing to open back up. Google searches for hairdressers and pubs are growing across the UK and the number of vacancies across Scotland is continuing to recover from its trough last May.
Our estimates show that if Scottish policy follows the rUK policy of freezing income tax thresholds the number of taxpayers subject to the Scottish higher rate and additional rate of tax will top 550,000 in the next parliament. If the Scottish Government chooses to increase thresholds in line with inflation, the median Scottish income taxpayer would pay around £195 less in tax in 2025/26. But the Scottish budget would be worse off in 2025/26 by over £700m.