David Eiser

Number of taxpayers subject to Scottish higher rate of tax set to top 550,000 in the next parliament

Our estimates show that if Scottish policy follows the rUK policy of freezing income tax thresholds the number of taxpayers subject to the Scottish higher rate and additional rate of tax will top 550,000 in the next parliament. If the Scottish Government chooses to increase thresholds in line with inflation, the median Scottish income taxpayer would pay around £195 less in tax in 2025/26. But the Scottish budget would be worse off in 2025/26 by over £700m.

Election Podcast #1

Podcast / Scottish Economy / March 26, 2021 March 26, 2021

In our first election podcast, Mairi Spowage, Emma Congreve, David Eiser and Stuart McIntyre reflect on the big themes likely to feature in this election and answer some of the questions asked by our webinar audience earlier this week that we didn’t have time to answer.

Tax policy in the 2016 – 2021 session of the Scottish Parliament

Article / Fiscal Policy and Tax / March 25, 2021 March 26, 2021

This paper reviews the tax policy changes that have been implemented in Scotland between the 2017/18 and 2021/22 budgets. It considers the motivation for policy changes, as well as their impacts on taxpayers and government revenues.

Are we still on course for a Scotland-specific economic shock in 2021?

Article / Scottish Economy / March 5, 2021 March 4, 2021

A ‘Scotland-specific shock’ was forecast back in January triggering additional budget flexibilities for the Scottish Government over the next few years. This article considers whether the shock still holds up in light of the new OBR forecasts for the UK economy.

UK Budget 2021 and implications for Scotland

Article / UK Budget / March 3, 2021 March 3, 2021

This was a budget of two parts – more spending in the short term to support mitigate the impacts of covid restrictions, and future fiscal tightening to address concerns about fiscal sustainability. But what were the implications for Scotland?

An economic shock and an income tax boost – making sense of the 2021/22 budget forecasts

Article / Scottish Budget / February 3, 2021 February 16, 2021

The Scottish Fiscal Commission’s forecasts accompanying the Scottish Budget last week triggered the conditions for a ‘Scotland specific economic shock’. As a result, additional budgetary flexibilities for the Scottish Government are unlocked.

Budget 2021/22: initial reaction

Article / Scottish Budget / January 28, 2021 February 2, 2021

The focus of this budget was predictably on supporting health and the economic recovery, when it comes. But it had a pre-election feel too, with several tax cuts. Read our initial reaction

Budget 2021/22: five things to watch for

Article / Scottish Budget / January 25, 2021 January 25, 2021

The Scottish Budget for 2021/22 will be published this Thursday. This article discusses the context and highlights five key issues to look out for.

Scotland’s Budget Report: 2020

Article / FAI Publications, Scottish Budget / December 15, 2020 December 14, 2020

Recent positive news on vaccine development raises expectations that 2021/22 will herald the beginnings of a recovery from both the health and economic shocks caused by Covid in 2020. With this backdrop, what are the implications for the Scottish Government’s budget for 2021/22 – due to be published on 28th January?

On exempting NHS bonus payments from tax

Article / Fiscal Policy and Tax, Scottish Budget / December 1, 2020 December 1, 2020

The Scottish Government has announced that NHS and care workers will receive a one-off thankyou payment of £500 this year. Like any bonus payment, these will be taxed. But where will tax revenues go, and is there a case for exempting the bonus from tax?