Scottish Business Monitor Results – Q1 2019

The Scottish Business Monitor Results for Q1 2019 are summarised in the PDF below.

You can download the PDF here: https://www.sbs.strath.ac.uk/economics/fraser/20190325/Business-Monitor-Q1-2019.pdf 

March 25, 2019

Today’s Scottish GDP numbers – Brexit uncertainty yet to have a significant impact on key economic indicators

Today the Scottish Government published GDP figures for the final quarter of 2018. Growth for Q4 2018 was 0.3% – below trend but slightly faster than the UK as a whole. This comes on the back of yesterday’s labour market data which showed Scottish unemployment at its lowest rate since the ONS Labour Force Survey was first collected on a consistent basis in the early 1990s.

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March 20, 2019

Spring Statement 2019: route-map to an unlikely destination?

Shorn of major policy announcements, the Spring Statement is an opportunity for the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to update its economic and fiscal forecasts, and for the Chancellor to announce policy reviews on everything from minimum wages to biodiversity.

So how have the forecasts changed since October 2018?Continue reading

March 13, 2019

Nowcasts of the Scottish economy

Grant Allan & Stuart McIntyre
http://www.nowcastingscotland.com 
Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde


Economic forecasting and nowcasting is notoriously difficult – even more so in a period of heightened economic uncertainty.

With the 29th March looming large on the calendar, economic uncertainty at present is extraordinarily high.

With this in mind, we report the latest results from our nowcasting model for Scotland.

  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2018 Q4 is 0.29% which, at an annual rate, is 1.16%
  • Our nowcast for GVA growth in 2019 Q1 is 0.31% which, at an annual rate, is 1.24%

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March 11, 2019

The final countdown: insights from Scottish businesses as the UK heads towards Brexit

With only 3 weeks to go until the UK is scheduled to leave the EU, Scottish Businesses still don’t have any certainty over the terms of the exit, and crucially, if there will be any sort of transition to future arrangements.

Ahead of a series of votes in the House of Commons next week, we’ve been asking businesses in Scotland about Brexit and their preparations for it. We asked firms from across the country, and from a variety of different sectors.

The focus was not on whether businesses believe Brexit to be good or bad, but instead, how Brexit is affecting different areas of their day-to-day activities such as investment and recruitment. Also, we were interested to find out to what extent firms have embarked upon any plans in preparation for Brexit: specifically whether they are prepared for a no deal Brexit.

This blog summarises the results of our survey.

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March 7, 2019