This isn’t a v-shaped recession….

Just three weeks ago, the OBR published forecasts of 1.1% growth in 2020.

How times have changed.

On the very same day, the Chancellor warned us to ignore these forecasts and to prepare for a ‘significant impact’ on our economy.  

Since then the situation has deteriorated further. Hopes that the recession that we are now in would be ‘v-shaped’ – i.e. a sharp downturn followed by a bounce-back in the months to follow – have sadly largely disappeared.

The latest data, and emerging insights from on the ground, suggests that the effects of this crisis are going to be long-lasting.

In this blog we assess why.

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March 31, 2020

Self-employment in Scotland and the new support measures

After a number of days of an announcement being anticipated, yesterday evening the Chancellor announced new measures to support self-employed workers through the COVID-19 pandemic.

Those that are self-employed will now receive a taxable grant worth up to 80% of their average monthly trading profits over the past three years. The self-employment Income Support Scheme will be in place for a period of three months, but the Chancellor said this would be extended if required.

The depth and breadth of the impact this pandemic is having on the economy means it might well be the case that time-limited measures last for longer than first planned – particularly as it is becoming increasingly clear that the effects of this pandemic will last much longer than the few weeks or months first though.

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Household finances in Scotland – now and in the future

New summary statistics have been released today on household income for the UK, including Scotland, covering the period up to the 2018/19 financial year. These figures belong to the pre-COVID-19 world but should not be dismissed as irrelevant. They provide a picture of the underlying health of household finances going into this current crisis.

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March 26, 2020