Fraser of Allander Institute, November 2016
Autumn Statement 2016 will be remembered for the unprecedented scale of its revisions to economic and fiscal forecasts, rather than its comparatively modest policy announcements.
Just eight months ago, George Osborne had laid out a budget that was expected to see the UK public finances return to surplus by 2019/20.
Forecasts published yesterday alongside the Autumn Statement leave that ambition (if it remained an ambition) in tatters. Forecasts for GDP growth have been revised down in 2017 and 2018, as a result of post EU-ref uncertainty and weaker consumer spending. Trade growth and migration are both expected to slow over the next ten years as the UK negotiates new trade deals post-Brexit.Continue reading